Edward Wegman

Edward Wegman is a statistics professor at George Mason University and chair of the National Research Council’s Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics. He holds a Ph.D. in mathematical statistics and is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and a Senior Member of the IEEE.

Background

Edward Wegman, a Saint Louis, Missouri native, received a B.S. in mathematics from Saint Louis University in 1965, he then went to graduate school at the University of Iowa where he earned an M.S. in 1967 and a Ph.D. in 1968, both in mathematical statistics. He held a faculty position at the University of North Carolina for ten years. Dr. Wegman is credited with coining the phrase "computational statistics" and developing a high-profile research program around the concept that computing resources could transform statistical techniques. He joined the faculty of George Mason University in 1986 and developed a master’s degree program in statistical science. He also has been the associate editor of seven academic journals, a member of numerous editorial boards, and the author of more than 160 papers and five books. [ [http://www.iowalum.com/daa/wegman.html The University of Iowa] Alumni Association distinguished alumni award page]

Energy and Commerce hearing

In 2006 Joe Barton, chairman of the United States House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee and Ed Whitfield, the chairman of the subcommittee on Oversight and Investigation, requested that Dr. Wegman prepare a report on the statistical validity of Michael E. Mann's "Hockey Stick graph", for the hearing "Questions Surrounding the 'Hockey Stick' Temperature Studies: Implications for Climate Change Assessments"," [ [http://energycommerce.house.gov/reparchives/108/Hearings/07192006hearing1987/hearing.htm "Committee on Energy and Commerce"] Hearing] [ [http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/WegmanReport.pdf Full Wegman Report] ] [ [http://republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_fact_sheet.pdf Wegman fact-sheet] ]

Dr. Wegman assembled an ad hoc panel of himself, David W. Scott of Rice University and Yasmin Said at Johns Hopkins University to prepare the report on a pro bono basis. At the hearing to present it, Wegman said "We were asked to provide independent verification by statisticians of the critiques of the statistical methodology found in the papers of Drs. Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley, and Malcolm Hughes published respectively in Nature in 1998 and in Geophysical Research Letters in 1999." and "We were also asked about the implications of our assessment. We were not asked to assess the reality of global warming and indeed this is not an area of our expertise. We do not assume any position with respect to global warming except to note in our report that the instrumented record of global average temperature has risen since 1850 according to the MBH99 chart by about 1.2 degrees Celsius, and in the NAS panel report chaired by Dr. North, about six-tenths of a degree Celsius in several places in that report."

The presented report was highly critical, saying among other things:
*It is important to note the isolation of the paleoclimate community; even though they rely heavily on statistical methods they do not seem to be interacting with the statistical community. Additionally, we judge that the sharing of research materials, data and results was haphazardly and grudgingly done. In this case we judge that there was too much reliance on peer review, which was not necessarily independent. Moreover, the work has been sufficiently politicized that this community can hardly reassess their public positions without losing credibility. Overall, our committee believes that Dr. Mann’s assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade of the millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year of the millennium cannot be supported by his analysis.'
*Our committee believes that the assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade in a millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year in a millennium cannot be supported by the MBH98/99 analysis. As mentioned earlier in our background section, tree ring proxies are typically calibrated to remove low frequency variations. The cycle of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age that was widely recognized in 1990 has disappeared from the MBH98/99 analyses, thus making possible the hottest decade/hottest year claim. However, the methodology of MBH98/99 suppresses this low frequency information. The paucity of data in the more remote past makes the hottest-in-a-millennium claims essentially unverifiable. [ [http://energycommerce.house.gov/reparchives/108/Hearings/07192006hearing1987/Wegman.pdf Wegman's testimony] ]

At the hearing, Dr. Wegman indicated that the report had only been peer-reviewed by those he selected. There were a total of 12 members present in an official status; Committee Chair Barton was there in an ex officio status. [http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=109_house_hearings&docid=f:31362.wais Transcript of the entire hearing] ]

The report itself has been commented on extensively by the blog RealClimate [ [http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/the-missing-piece-at-the-wegman-hearing/#more-328 Real Climate's comments on the Wegman Report] ] and also on the blog Climate Audit [ [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2322 Climate Audit's comments on the Wegman Report and related matters] ]

References

External links

* [http://www.galaxy.gmu.edu/stats/faculty/wegman.html University faculty page]
* [http://www.galaxy.gmu.edu/stats/faculty/wegman.resume2.htm Dr. Wegman's resume]
* [http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=22003a0d-37cc-4399-8bcc-39cd20bed2f6&k=0 National Post story on the use of statistics in climate science]