- James Chowning Davies
James Chowning Davies (born 1918) is an American sociologist and
professor emeritus ofpolitical science at theUniversity of Oregon . Davies is perhaps best known for his so-called "J curve " theory of politicalrevolution s, which seeks to explain the rise of revolutionary movements in terms of rising individual expectations and falling levels of perceived well-being.Davies asserts that revolutions are a subjective response to a sudden reversal in fortunes after a long period of economic growth. The theory is often applied to explain
social unrest and efforts by governments to contain this unrest. This is referred to as the "Davies' J-Curve", because economic development followed by a depression would be modelled as an upside down and slightly skewed J.Quote
"Revolutions are most likely to occur when a prolonged period of objective economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal. People then subjectively fear that ground gained with great effort will be quite lost; their mood becomes revolutionary. The evidence from
Dorr's Rebellion , the Russian Revolution, and the Egyptian Revolution supports this notion; tentatively, so do data on other civil disturbances. Various statistics--as on rural uprisings, industrial strikes, unemployment, and cost of living--may serve as crude indexes of popular mood. More useful, though less easy to obtain, are direct questions in cross-sectional interviews. The goal of predicting revolution is conceived but not yet born or matured."(From the abstract of J. C. Davies: "Toward a theory of revolution" American Sociological Review 27(1962):5-19, available via
JSTOR , see also [http://garfield.library.upenn.edu/classics1982/A1982NQ25300001.pdf Citation Classics review] )Bibliography
*"When Men Revolt and Why - A Reader in Political Violence and Revolution" (
The Free Press , 1971)
*"Human Nature in Politics - The Dynamics of Political Behavior" (Wiley, 1963)by other authors:
* [http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/77498 When Change Is Not Enough: Seven Steps to Revolution] By Sara Robinson
Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.