Outcome bias

Outcome bias: The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.

Overview

One will often judge a past decision by its ultimate outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made, given what was known at that time. This is an error because no decision maker ever knows whether or not a calculated risk will turn out for the best. The actual outcome of the decision will often be determined by chance, with some risks working out and others not. Individuals whose judgments are influenced by outcome bias are seemingly holding decision makers responsible for events beyond their control.

Baron and Hershey (1988) presented subjects with hypothetical situations in order to test this.^[1] One such example involved a surgeon deciding whether or not to do a risky surgery on a patient. The surgery had a known probability of success. Subjects were presented with either a good or bad outcome (in this case living or dying), and asked to rate the quality of the surgeon's pre-operation decision. Those presented with bad outcomes rated the decision worse than those who had good outcomes.

The reason why an individual makes this mistake is that he or she will incorporate presently available information when evaluating a past decision. To avoid the influence of outcome bias, one should evaluate a decision by ignoring information collected after the fact and focusing on what the right answer is, or was at the time the decision was made.

See also

Historian's fallacy

Deontology vs. teleology and consequentialism (ethical theories)

List of cognitive biases

References

^ Baron J. & Hershey J.C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol 54(4) Apr, 569-579.

v · d · eBiases

Cognitive bias
Confirmation bias · Correspondence bias · Hindsight bias · Memory bias · Motivated reasoning · Outcome bias · Publication bias · Status quo bias

Statistical bias
Ascertainment bias · Bias of an estimator · Information bias · Lead time bias · Observer bias · Omitted-variable bias · Recall bias · Response bias · Sampling bias · Selection bias · Systematic bias · Systemic bias

Other/ungrouped
FUTON bias · No abstract available bias

Categories:
Cognitive biases

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Outcome bias

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Outcome bias

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