Tropical cyclone track forecasting

Tropical cyclone track forecasting involves predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours. The history of tropical cyclone track forecasting has evolved from a single station approach to a comprehensive approach which uses a variety of meteorological tools and methods to make predictions. The weather of a particular location can show signs of the approaching tropical cyclone, such as increasing swell, increasing cloudiness, falling barometric pressure, increasing tides, squalls, and heavy rainfall.

The forces that affect tropical cyclone steering are the higher latitude westerlies, the subtropical ridge, and the beta effect caused by changes of the coriolis force within fluids such as the atmosphere. Accurate track predictions depend on determining the position and strength of high and low pressure areas, and predicting how those areas will migrate during the life of a tropical system. Computer forecast models are used to help determine this motion as far out as five to seven days in the future.

History

The methods through which tropical cyclones are forecast have changed with the passage of time. The first known forecasts in the Western Hemisphere were made by Lt. Col. William Reed of the Corps of Royal Engineers at Barbados in 1847. Reed mostly utilized barometric pressure measurements as the basis of his forecasts. Benito Vines introduced a forecast and warning system based on cloud cover changes in Havana during the 1870s. Before the early 1900’s, though, most forecasts were done by direct observations at weather stations, which were then relayed to forecast centers via telegraph. It was not until the advent of radio in the early twentieth century that observations from ships at sea were available to forecasters. The 1930’s saw the usage of radiosondes in tropical cyclone forecasting. The next decade saw the advent of aircraft-based reconnaissance by the military, starting with the first dedicated flight into a hurricane in 1943, and the establishment of the Hurricane Hunters in 1944. In the 1950’s, coastal weather radars began to be used in the United States, and research reconnaissance flights by the precursor of the Hurricane Research Division began in 1954.cite journal | author = Robert C. Sheets | title = The National Hurricane Center—Past, Present and Future | journal = Monthly Weather Review | volume = 5 | issue = 2 | date = June 1990 | accessdate = 2007-12-07 | url = http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0434/5/2/pdf/i1520-0434-5-2-185.pdf | format = PDF]

With the launch of the first weather satellite, TIROS-I, in 1960, introduced new forecasting techniques that remain important to tropical cyclone forecasting to the present. In the 1970’s, buoys were introduced to improve the resolution of surface measurements, which until that point, were not available at all over sea surfaces.

ingle station forecasting of a tropical cyclone passage

About four days in advance of a typical tropical cyclone, an ocean swell of convert|1|m|ft in height will roll in about every 10 seconds, moving towards the coast from the direction of the tropical cyclone's location. The ocean swell will slowly increase in height and frequency the closer a tropical cyclone gets to land. Two days in advance of the center's passage, winds go calm as the tropical cyclone interrupts the environmental wind flow. Within 36 hours of the center passage, the pressure begins to fall and a veil of white cirrus clouds approaches from the cyclone's direction. Within 24 hours of the closest approach to the center, low clouds begin to move in as the barometric pressure begins to fall more rapidly and the winds begin to increase. Within 18 hours of the center's approach, squally weather is common, with sudden increases in wind accompanied by rain showers or thunderstorms. Winds increase within 12 hours of the center's approach, occasionally reaching hurricane force. The ocean's surface becomes whipped with foam. Small items begin flying in the wind. Within 6 hours of the center's arrival, rain becomes continuous and the storm surge begins to come inland. Within an hour of the center, the rain becomes very heavy and the highest winds within the tropical cyclone are experienced. When the center arrives with a strong tropical cyclone, weather conditions improve and the sun becomes visible as the eye moves overhead. At this point, the pressure ceases to drop as the lowest pressure within the storm's center is reached. This is also when the peak depth of the storm surge occurs. Once the system departs, winds reverse and, along with the rain, suddenly increase. The storm surge retreats as the pressure suddenly rises in the wake of its center. One day after the center's passage, the low overcast is replaced with a higher overcast, and the rain becomes intermittent. By 36 hours after the center's passage, the high overcast breaks and the pressure begins to level off. [Central Pacific Hurricane Center. [http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/FAQ/Observations.php Tropical Cyclone Observations.] Retrieved on 2008-05-05.]

Basics

The large scale synoptic flow determines 70 to 90 percent of a tropical cyclone's motion. The deep layer mean flow is considered to be the best tool in determining track direction and speed. If storms experience significant vertical wind shear, use of a lower level wind such as the 700 hPa pressure level (at a height of convert|3000|m|ft above sea level) will work out as a better predictor. Knowledge of the beta effect can be used to steer a tropical cyclone, since it leads to a more northwest heading for tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere due to differences in the coriolis force around the cyclone. [Glossary of Meteorology. [http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?p=1&query=beta+effect&submit=Search Beta Effect.] Retrieved on 2008-05-05.] For example, the beta effect will allow a tropical cyclone to track poleward and slightly to the right of the deep layer steering flow while the system lies the south of the subtropical ridge. Northwest moving storms move quicker and left, while northeast moving storms move slower and left. The larger the cyclone, the larger the impact of the beta effect is likely to be.U. S. Navy. [http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap4/se100.htm SECTION 1. INFLUENCES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION.] Retrieved on 2007-04-10.]

Fujiwhara effect

When two or more tropical cyclones are in proximity to one another, they begin to rotate cyclonically around the midpoint between their circulation centers. In the northern hemisphere, this is in a counterclockwise direction, and in the southern hemisphere, a clockwise direction. Usually, the tropical cyclones need to be within convert|1450|km|mi of each other for this effect to take place. It is a more common phenomenon in the northern Pacific ocean than elsewhere, due to the higher frequency of tropical cyclone activity which occurs in that region.Todd Kimberlain. [http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/TropicalTalk.ppt Tropical cyclone motion and intensity talk (June 2007).] Retrieved on 2007-07-21.]

Trochoidal motions

Small wobbles in a tropical cyclone's track can occur when the convection is distributed unevenly within its circulation. This can be due to changes in vertical wind shear or inner core structure. Because of this effect, forecasters use a longer term (6 to 24 hours) motion to help forecast tropical cyclones, which acts to smooth out such wobbles.U. S. Navy. [http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap4/se100.htm SECTION 1. INFLUENCES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION.] Retrieved on 2007-04-10.]

Forecast models

High-speed computers and sophisticated simulation software allow meteorologists to run computer models that forecast tropical cyclone tracks based on the future position and strength of high- and low-pressure systems. Combining forecast models with increased understanding of the forces that act on tropical cyclones, and a wealth of data from Earth-orbiting satellites and other sensors, scientists have increased the accuracy of track forecasts over recent decades.cite web | author = National Hurricane Center | url = http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml?#FIG1 | work = National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification | title = Annual average model track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1994-2005, for a homogeneous selection of "early" models | accessdate = 2006-11-30 | publisher = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | date = May 22, 2006] The addition of dropwindsonde missions around tropical cyclones in what are known as synoptic flow missions in the Atlantic Basin decreased track error by 15-20 percent. [B. Geerts. [http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap13/tc_track.html Tropical cyclone track forecasting.] Retrieved on 2007-04-10.] Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of the various models, can help reduce forecast error. However, regardless how small the average error becomes, large errors within the guidance are still possible. [Richard J. Pasch, Mike Fiorino, and Chris Landsea. [http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/NCEP-EMCModelReview2006/TPC-NCEP2006.ppt TPC/NHC’S REVIEW OF THE NCEP PRODUCTION SUITE FOR 2006.] Retrieved on 2008-05-05.] An accurate track forecast is important, because if the track forecast is incorrect, forecasts for intensity, rainfall, storm surge, and tornado threat will also be incorrect.

Length of forecast period

[
thumb|right|250_px|A_three_day_National Hurricane Center track forecast for Katrina in 2005] For decades, tropical cyclone tracks were routinely issued out to 72 hours in the future. Starting in the mid to late 1990s, research into tropical cyclones and how forecast models handle the systems led to substantial improvements in track error. [National Hurricane Center. [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml?#FIG1 Forecast verification trends over the past 35 years.] Retrieved on 2007-05-05.] By 2001, the error had reduced sufficiently to extend track out to 5 days in the future on public advisories. In addition, at 1600 UTC during the hurricane season, a medium range coordination call takes place between the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center to coordinate tropical cyclone placement on the medium range pressure forecasts 6 and 7 days into the future for the northeast Pacific and Atlantic basins. Every so often, even at this time range, successful predictions can be made. [Department of Commerce. [http://www.weather.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Katrina.pdf Hurricane Katrina Service Assessment.] Retrieved on 2007-05-05.]

See also

* Tropical cyclone
* Tropical cyclone forecasting

References

External links

* [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models]