Redshift (theory)

Redshift is a techno-economic theory suggesting hypersegmentation of Information Technology (IT) markets based on whether individual computing needs are over or under-served by Moore's Law, which predicts the doubling of computing transistors (and therefore roughly computing power) every two years. The theory,proposed and named by Sun Microsystems CTO Greg Papadopoulos, categorizes a series of high growth markets (Redshifting) while predicting slower GDP-driven growth in traditional computing markets (Blueshifting). Papadopoulos predicts the result will be a fundamental redesign of components comprising computing systems.

Hypergrowth Market Segments (Redshifting)

According to the Redshift theory, “Redshifting” applications are growing dramatically faster than Moore's Law, growing quickly in their absolute number of systems.Greg Papadopoulos: Sun Analyst Summit 2007, http://sun.feedroom.com/linking/?skin=oneclip&fr_story=FEEDROOM178646&hl=false] In these markets, customers are running out of datacenter real estate, power and cooling infrastructure. [New York Times, June 14, 2006: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/14/technology/14search.html?ex=1307937600] According to Dell Senior Vice President Brad Anderson, “Businessesrequiring hyper-scale computing environments – where infrastructuredeployments are measured by up to millions of servers, storage andnetworking equipment – are changing the way they approach IT.” [Dell Press Release: http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/corp/pressoffice/en/2007/2007_03_27_rr_000?c=us&l=en&s=corp]

While various Redshift proponents offer minor alterations on the originalpresentation, “Redshifting” generally includes:

; ΣBW (Sum-of-Bandwidth) : Companies who are driving heavy Internet traffic. This includes popular web portals like Google, Yahoo, AOL and MSN. It also includes telecoms, multimedia, television over IP, online games like World of Warcraft and others. This segment has been enabled by widespread availability of high bandwidth Internet connections to consumers through a DSL or cable modem. A simple way to understand this market is that for every byte of content served to a PC, mobile phone or other device over a network, there must exist computing systems to send it over the network.

; High Performance Computing (HPC) : Companies doing complex simulations such as weather, stock market or drug design simulations. This is a generally elastic market because businesses frequently spend every "available" dollar budgeted for IT. A common anecdote is that cutting the cost of computing by half causes customers in this segment to buy at least twice as much, because each marginal IT dollar spent contributes to business advantage.

; *prise (or "Star-prise") : Companies aggregating traditional computing applications and offer them as services, typically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS). For example, companies deploying CRM solutions are over-served by Moore's Law, but companies that aggregate CRM solutions and offer them as a service, such as Salesforce.com, are growing faster than Moore's Law.

Traditional Computing Markets (Blueshifting)

Redshift theory suggests that traditional computing markets, such as those serving Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) or Customer Relationship Management (CRM) applications, have reached relative saturation in industrialized nations. Thereafter, proponentsargue further market growth will closely follow Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth, which typically remains under 10% for most countries annually. Given that Moore's Law continues to predict accurately the rate of computing transistor growth, which roughly translates into computing power doubling every two years, the Redshift theory suggests that traditional computing markets will ultimately contract as a percentage of computing expenditures over time.

Functionally, this means “Blueshifting” customers can satisfy computing requirement growth by swapping in faster processors without increasing the absolute number of computing systems.

Consequences & Industry Commentary

Papadopoulos argues that while traditional computing markets remain the dominant source of revenue through the late 2000s, a shift to hypergrowth markets will inevitably occur. When that shift occurs, he argues computing (but not computers) will become a utility, and differentiation inthe IT market will be based upon a company's ability to deliver computing at massive scale, efficiently and with predictable service levels, much like electricity today.

If computing is to be delivered as a utility, NicholasCarr suggests Papadopoulos' vision compares with Microsoft researcher Jim Hamilton, who both agree that computing is most efficiently generated in shipping containers. [Rough Type (Nicholas Carr's blog): http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2007/02/the_future_of_c.php and http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2007/03/showdown_in_the_1.php] Industry analysts are also beginning to quantify Redshifting and Blueshifting markets. According to International Data Corporation (IDC) vice president Matthew Eastwood, "IDC believes that the IT market is in a period of hyper segmentation... This a class of customers that is Moore's law driven and as price performance gains continue, IDC believes that these organizations will accelerate their consumption of IT infrastructure.” [IDC Link: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=lcUS20623507]

History & Nomenclature

Key portions of Papadopoulos' theory were first presented by Sun Microsystems CEO Jonathan Schwartz in late 2006. [Sun Blackbox Press Conference: http://sun.feedroom.com/?skin=oneclip&fr_story=73d774789da2b024c111f8cfc7948af6d1577827&rf=bm] Papadopoulos later gave a full presentation on Redshift to Sun's annual Analyst Summit in February 2007. The term Redshift refers to what happens when electromagnetic radiation, usually visible light, moves away from an observer. Papadopoulos chose this term to reflect growth markets because redshift helped cosmologists explain the expansion of the universe.

Papadopoulos originally depicted traditional IT markets as green to represent their revenue base, but later changed them to “blueshift,” which occurs when a light source moves toward an observer, similar to what would happen during a contraction of the universe. [The Economist, April 12, 2007: http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9013563]

External Resources

* [http://sun.feedroom.com/linking/?skin=oneclip&fr_story=FEEDROOM178646&hl=false Greg Papadopoulos: Original Redshift presentation video]
* [http://www.sun.com/greg Official Greg Papadopoulos biography]
* [http://informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=201800873 InformationWeek feature story on Redshift]
* [http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2007/02/the_future_of_c.php Nicholas Carr, "The future of computing demand"]
* [http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2007/03/showdown_in_the_1.php Nicholas Carr, "Showdown in the trailer park II"]
* [http://research.microsoft.com/~jamesrh/ Microsoft's Jim Hamilton: paper and presentation]
* [http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=4477 ZDnet Blog on Redshift]

Footnotes