Indian general elections, 2004-Regional Scenarios

= Regional Scenarios =

Andhra Pradesh

In AP Lok Sabha elections and state assembly elections were held simultaneously. In both, the ruling Telugu Desam Party-BJP combine were routed. BJP could not win a single seat. Congress had contested in alliance with Telangana Rashtra Samithi (a TDP splinter-group, working for the separation of Telangana from AP) and the communist parties. The islamist All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimen retained their stronghold in the Hyderabad constituency.

Bihar

In Bihar the RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav, husband of the Bihar Chief Minister Rabri Devi, was able to assemble a broad coalition of anti-NDA parties. It included RJD, Congress, Lok Janshakti, NCP and CPI(M). Congress posed larged scepticism towards the coalition, since the party was only allotted four seats by Laloo. The other coalition partners argued that four seats actually reflected the decreasing strength of Congress in the state. Lok Janshakti, a party with strong support amongst Dalit communities, were allotted eight seats. NCP and CPI(M) were allotted one seat each. RJD itself contested 26 seats.

Two large non-NDA parties in the state, CPI and CPI(ML) Liberation, did not join the Laloo-led front but contested individually. CPI(ML)L contested 21 seats and CPI six.

The NDA front consisted of BJP and JD(U). The alliance was threatened at several points, over disagreements on seat-sharing formulas. In the end JD(U) contested 24 seats and BJP 16.

BSP contested all 40 seats and SP 32 on their own, unsuccessfully. Lok Janshakti held sway over Dalit votes and RJD over Yadav votes, thus making it impossible for the Uttar Pradesh-based caste parties to make a breakthrough in the state.

The result was an overwhelming victory for the Laloo-led coalition. It won 29 seats. The rest went to the BJP-JD(U) combine.

Voting in the state was confronted with many irregularities, and repolling was ordered in four constituencies.

Haryana

Haryana saw a three-cornered contest between BJP, Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal. The latter party holds the current state government. In 1999 the NDA-combine, INLD and BJP, had made a clean sweep and won all ten seats. After that INLD had left NDA. This time INLD, BJP, Congress and BSP all contested all ten seats. Haryana Vikas Party contested nine of the seats. A new force, Ekta Shakti, contested three seats on a populist agenda. The result was a land-slide victory for Congress.

Karnataka

Karnataka, which held simultaneous Lok Sabha and state assembly elections, saw a three-cornered struggle between Congress, BJP and JD(S). BJP was on the offensive ahead of the elections, Karnataka was to become the opening in the South for the party. It could ride on an antiincumbency wave against the sitting Congress state government. At the same time, its NDA ally JD(U) had declined severely in the state. BJP contested 24 seats and JD(U) the remaining four.

Congress and JD(S) both contested all 28 seats. The communist parties (CPI(M) and CPI) stayed out of the Lok Sabha contest, and focused on the assembly elections. BJP made impressive gains, although the losses of Congress were not as bad as some predictions had pictured it.

Note: In 1999, before Chattisgarh was created as a separate state, Madhya Pradesh had 40 MPs.

Maharashtra

In Maharashtra the battle stood between the governing Democratic Front (NCP, Congress, JD(S) and various RPI factions) and the opposition BJP-Shiv Sena combine. There was an anti-incumbency wave against the state government, especially in the drought-affected interior parts of the state. In those areas the BJP-SS combine did well. In the Konkan and Mumbai, NCP-Congress did well. In 1999 NCP and Congress had been confronting each other, creating a three-cornered contest benefitting BJP-SS. This time NCP and Congress were united, and could gain more seats. Thus the result became a fractured one.