- Ding Hai Effect
The Ding Hai Effect (zh-tsp|t=丁蟹效應|s=丁蟹效应|p=Dīng Xiè xiàoyìng), Adam Cheng Effect, Chiu Koon Effect (zh-tsp|t=秋官效應|s=秋官效应|p=qiūguān xiàoyìng), or Qiuguan Effect is a peculiar stock phenomenon that affects Hong KongFact|date=February 2008
stock market s.Phenomenon
It is observed that whenever the
Hong Kong actorAdam Cheng stars in a newtelevision show, there is a sudden and unexplained drop in the market.Fact|date=February 2008 This is still a popular topic amongst stock brokers,Fact|date=February 2008 years after the drama series "Greed of Man " was broadcasted in Hong Kong in October 1992. The effect is named after Ding Hai, the main character of the show, played by Adam Cheng.History
In the 1990s,
TVB aired the classic drama "The Greed of Man ", which featured some of the most popular actors and actresses of the time. The drama centred heavily around the stock market, and the schemes and plots of those who struck it rich in the market.Cheng, who played Ding Hai in the drama, made an immense fortune with his four sons by selling short derivatives and stocks during a bear market. Many people went broke, but the Ding family became richer and richer until an eventual defeat by the family's nemesis.
Occurrences
Initially, the Ding Hai Effect occurred whenever the TVB drama series "Greed of Man" or its remake, "Divine Retribution" (世紀之戰), made by
Asia Television Ltd (ATV) was broadcast. Later, it was also observed that the effect occurs whenever a new drama show that Cheng stars in was aired.Fact|date=February 20081990s
* October 1992: The drama series "Greed of Man" (大時代) made its debut on TVB. During the time it was broadcast, Hong Kong's
Hang Seng Index dropped 598 points in 4 days, causing billions in stock losses. Fact|date=February 2008* November 1994: "Instinct" (笑看風雲) made its debut on TVB. The Heng Sang Index fell more than 2,000 points. Fact|date=February 2008
* September 1996: "Once Upon a Time in Shanghai" (新上海灘) premiered on TVB. The Hang Seng Index fell 300 points. Fact|date=February 2008
* June 1997: "Cold Blood Warm Heart" (天地男兒) made its debut on TVB. The Hang Seng Index accumulated 735 points in losses. Fact|date=February 2008
* December 1997: "Legend of Yung Ching" (江湖奇俠傳) premiered. At this time, the Asian Financial Crisis began, and the Heng Seng Index fell 5,324 points, ending below the 10,000 mark.Fact|date=February 2008
* June 1999, "Lord of Imprisonment" (神劍萬里追) premiered, causing the Heng Seng Index to decline 1,176 pointsFact|date=February 2008
2000s
* September 2000: A loose re-make of "The Greed of Man", "Divine Retribution" (世紀之戰), aired on ATV. Due to the Tech stock bubble at the time, the Hang Seng Index fell an accumulated 1,715 points, with other stock markets around the world falling as a result also. Fact|date=February 2008
*Summer 2003: "Greed of Man" (大時代) re-aired on TVB's US satellite channel, TVB-USA. Corporate Corruption scandals stemming from financial troubles at
Enron caused much stock market instability in the US and other global markets.Fact|date=February 2008*October 2003: "The Driving Power" (非常外父) made its debut. At first, it appeared the spell was broken, with the Heng Seng Index rising more than 100 points on the day of the premiere. However, the market soon fell, eventually falling 51 points. Fact|date=February 2008
* March 2004: "Blade Heart" (血薦軒轅) premiered in Hong Kong, causing the Hang Seng Index to fall 550 points over 3 days due to high oil prices and instabilities in the
Middle East . Fact|date=February 2008* October 2004: "The Conqueror's Story" (楚漢驕雄) premiered in Hong Kong, causing a 198-point drop in the Heng Seng Index on the day of the premiere Fact|date=February 2008
* March 2005: "The Prince's Shadow" (御用閒人) premiered, and local uncertainties surrounding the resignation of Chief Executive
Tung Chee Hwa caused wild fluctuations in the market.Fact|date=February 2008* April 2006: "Bar Bender" (潮爆大狀) premiered in Hong Kong, causing wild drops in US and Hong Kong stock markets. { [fact
* July 2006: "The Prince's Shadow" aired on TVB-USA, and markets fell dramatically due to the Israeli-Lebanese Conflict. Fact|date=February 2008
* February-March 2007: "The Prince's Shadow" was rebroadcast in Hong Kong, and a Chinese stock market crisis caused Hong Kong and global markets to drop significantly. Fact|date=February 2008
* May 2007: Investigative programme "Mystery" (謎) premiered, with Cheng as the host. The Heng Seng Index fell 700 points. Fact|date=February 2008
* July 2007: "Return Home" (香港傳奇-榮歸) premiered in Hong Kong, and the subprime mortgage financial crisis caused the market to fall 1,165 points in Hong Kong; US and Canadian stock markets also dropped significantly in July and August. Fact|date=February 2008
* August 2007: "Bar Benders" premiered on TVB-USA, and the subprime mortgage financial crisis caused extreme drops in global markets. The market is still in a volatile state when the series finale aired on
10 September 2007 . It is interesting to note that "The Greed of Man" was rerun at roughly the same time on TVB-USA. Fact|date=February 2008* October-November 2007: "The Conqueror's Story" (楚漢驕雄) premiered in Singapore, global markets dropped significantly for weeks. Fact|date=February 2008
Exception
The only time that the Ding Hai Effect did not occur was in late
2006 , when a cultural and educational programme about theForbidden City hosted by Cheng was aired in the US and did not cause a stock market crisis.Conclusion
The Ding Hai Effect has led to Adam Cheng attracting much press attention. Now, whenever a new show starring Adam Cheng is about to be broadcast, some stockbrokers and investors in Hong Kong become wary, even anticipating a drop in the market.
While some investors have argued that the effect is no more than a series of coincidences and amounts to nothing more than a
self-fulfilling prophecy , the show's peculiar effect on the stock market is regarded by some as more than coincidence. It was also confirmed thatCrédit Lyonnais wrote a report on this matter.This strange phenomenon also created a career trough for Adam ChengFact|date=February 2008 in Hong Kong during the 1990s, for the two over-the-air television stations in Hong Kong avoided using Cheng for its dramas, partly (if not completely) because they did not want to bear responsibility for a stock market crash.
External links
* [http://www.benkaiser.net/adam The Adam Cheng Effect: The man who crashes the market]
* [http://xfn.quamnet.com/xfn/jsp/en/analysis.jsp?s_id=3&id=20040401122801220877einens Hong Kong stocks to hit bottom April 1-7 on 'Adam Cheng effect' - CLSA ]
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