Halloween indicator

Halloween indicator

The Halloween indicator is a theory that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. This gives rise to an investment strategy known by the saying Sell in May and go away, in which stocks are sold at the start of May and the proceeds held in bonds or a deposit account; stocks are bought again in the autumn, typically around Halloween (the end of October).

Though this effect is often cited informally, it has largely been ignored in academic circles (perhaps being assumed to be a mere superstition). Nonetheless analysis shows that the effect has indeed occurred in almost all countries examined, and since the 17th century in the UK; it is strongest in Europe Fact|date=September 2008.

It is not clear what causes the effect, though it is often thought to be related to summer vacations.

References

*Jacobsen, Ben and Bouman, Sven: "The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Another Puzzle" (July 2001). [http://ssrn.com/abstract=76248]


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