Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district election, 2006

The Pennsylvania 7th congressional district election, 2006 was an election for the United States House of Representatives that took place on November 7, 2006 between long-time incumbent Republican Curt Weldon and his Democratic opponent former Navy 3-star admiral Joe Sestak. Sestak was elected with 56% of the vote. [ [http://inquirer.philly.com/graphics/election_2006/ The Philadelphia Inquirer ] ]

Results

Election box candidate with party link
party = Democratic Party (United States)
candidate = Joe Sestak
votes = 147,347
percentage = 56.4
change = +16.1Election box candidate with party link
party = Republican Party (United States)
candidate = Curt Weldon (incumbent)
votes = 114,056
percentage = 43.6
change = -15.2Election box majority
votes = 33,291
percentage = 12.7
change = Election box turnout
votes = 261,403
percentage =
change = Election box gain with party link
winner = Democratic Party (United States)
loser = Republican Party (United States)
swing = 15.7

Candidates

Republican incumbent

Weldon first ran for U.S. Congress ushr|Pennsylvania|7| in 1984 on the Republican ticket but lost to incumbent Democrat Rep. Robert W. Edgar. Two years later, however, instead of running for re-election, Edgar unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. Senate, losing to Arlen Specter. Weldon ran again for Edgar's seat in 1986 and won with a comfortable margin.

Democratic challenger

The Democratic challenger was retired Vice Admiral Joe Sestak, who holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University in political economy and government.

The primary

In February, Iraq war veteran Bryan Lentz agreed to drop his bid for the seat held by Weldon, instead running for a Pennsylvania state legislature seat, a move brokered by Governor Ed Rendell. Lentz had raised about $125,000 for his congressional campaign. Haverford Democrat Paul Scoles, who ran poorly funded race against Weldon in 2004, also backed out in early February, throwing his support behind Sestak. [William Bender, [http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16101854&BRD=1675&PAG=461&dept_id=18171&rfi=8 "Dems revamp lineup card: It's Sestak vs. Weldon; Lentz vs. Gannon"] , "Delaware County Times", February 10, 2006] As a result, Sestak avoided a contentious primary.

The general campaign

ushr|Pennsylvania|7|, covering the suburbs west of Philadelphia, was one of the districts where John Kerry outpolled Bush in the 2004 election, which nonetheless elected a Republican to the House. As such, it became the target of Democratic strategists; in 2006 the Democrats this year fielded a much stronger and vastly better-funded challenger cite news | title= Navy Vet Sestak Coming Closer to Sinking Weldon in Pa. 7 | author=Greg Giroux | date=October 13, 2006 | url= http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20061013/pl_cq_politics/navyvetsestakcomingclosertosinkingweldoninpa7 | publisher=CQPolitics.com] Further helping Democratic prospects is that Gov. Ed Rendell is running for re-election as governor. As he is a former Philadelphia mayor who is well-known and popular across the metropolitan area, Sestak may have some coattails to ride.

On the other hand, Weldon does have some bipartisan appeal. According to an unofficial tally of House votes in 2006 compiled by CQPolitics.com, "Weldon voted 76 percent of the time with his party on votes that divided the two parties: That is the 15th lowest score among House Republicans."

In April, treatment of Sestak's daughter for cancer in a Washington area hospital became an issue. "The Hill" reported that "Weldon attacked Sestak's decision to continue owning a home in Virginia while only renting in Pennsylvania and questioned why Sestak did not move back to Pennsylvania when he was working at the Pentagon. Weldon commutes from Pennsylvania each day. Weldon also suggested Sestak should have sent his daughter to a hospital in Philadelphia or Delaware, rather than the Washington hospital. Sestak said that as soon as doctors give his daughter the all-clear, he'll buy in Pennsylvania." [Jonathan E. Kaplan, [http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/040506_sestak.html "Sestak’s battles — naval, familial and political"] , "The Hill", April 5, 2006] The next day, "The Washington Post" reported that "A campaign spokesman who talked with Weldon said the congressman denied having made 'the girl's sickness an issue,' but that Weldon 'confirmed that while talking to "The Hill", he had made a reference to the quality of hospitals in the Philadelphia area.'" [Bob Warner, [http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/local/14275243.htm "Weldon offends his challenger: Congressman weighs in on a hospital choice"] , "Philadelphia Daily News", April 6, 2006] Sestak angrily denounced Weldon's attack as "beyond the pale." [http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/12054520/the_10_worst_congressmen/8]

In July, the Republicans attacked Sestak for wearing a three-star Navy uniform at the Memorial Day parade in Springfield, Pennsylvania. Sestak retired as a two-star admiral; the U.S. Code permits retired military officers to display only their retired grade and prohibits wearing any service uniform while politicking. The Sestak campaign, in response, cited Navy regulations that permit retired members to wear the uniform of their highest grade when attending memorial services. Sestak had been invited to the parade by the head of the Springfield American Legion, a Republican. [William Bender, [http://www.delcotimes.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16976432&BRD=1675&PAG=461&dept_id=18171&rfi=6 "Pa. GOP rips Sestak for wearing Navy uniform"] , "Delaware County Times", July 27, 2006]

On October 13, the media reported that Weldon and his daughter were being investigated by the FBI [http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/15760501.htm] [http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15760138.htm] for their involvement with two Russian energy companies and a Serbian company connected with Slobodan Milosevic. The investigation focuses on the lobbying firm Solutions North America owned and run by daughter Karen Weldon and local Republican operative Charlie Sexton, which was hired for $1 million, and whether Weldon was involved in obtaining the contracts or was lobbied by his daughter's firm. Three days later, FBI agents raided the home of Weldon's daughter, Karen, as well as five other locations of Weldon associates in Pennsylvania and Florida as part of the investigation.cite news | title= Agents raid homes of Rep. Curt Weldon’s daughter, close friend | author=John Shiffman, Mitch Lipka and Patrick Kerkstra | publisher=Philadelphia Inquirer | date=October 16, 2006 | url=http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15772927.htm] [Maryclaire Dale, [http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/103-10162006-727776.html "FBI raids home of Weldon's daughter, friend in influence probe"] , "Associated Press", October 16, 2006.] On October 17, 2006, "The Philadelphia Inquirer" reported that Weldon "acknowledged yesterday that he was under investigation." [http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/15775792.htm]

Fundraising

Sestak has raised more money than Weldon for two consecutive quarters. Sestak raised $704,000 in the second quarter of 2006, while Weldon reported raising $692,000. In the third quarter, Sestak's $1.14 million bested the $912,000 raised by Weldon. As of September 30, 2006, Sestak had $1.53 million cash on hand, while Weldon had $1.12 million in the bank after making a $500,000 TV ad buy that had not started as of the close of the third quarter. [http://www.delcotimes.com/site/index.cfm?newsid=17280041&BRD=1675&PAG=461&dept_id=18171&rfi=8] . In 2004, by contrast, challenger Paul Scoles had just $24,000 for his campaign to Weldon's $895,000.

Polls

On October 13, 2006, CQPolitics changed their rating on the race, from "Leans Republican" to the highly competitive "No Clear Favorite." [http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/navy_vet_sestak_coming_closer.html] This was the second time CQPolitics changed its rating in the match-up; in July, it reclassified the race from "Republican Favored" to the more competitive "Leans Republican." They subsequently noted, however, that this change was made the day before the media reported that the FBI was investigating Weldon and his daughter. Shortly after the raid, CQPolitics.com changed their rating on this race for a third time, this time from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic". [cite news | url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/weldon_under_investigation_is.html | title=Weldon, Under Investigation, Is Now the Underdog in Pa. 7 | author=Greg Giroux | date=October 17, 2006 | publisher=CQPolitics.com]

A Majority Watch poll conducted on October 8-10, 2006, shows Sestak leading Weldon among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error at +/- 3 percent. [http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.php "Constituent Dynamics"] [http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/PA7.pdf "Poll scores"]

On October 6, 2006, the non-partisan Cook Political Report re-rated the race from "Lean Republican" to the more competitive "Toss Up." [ [http://cookpolitical.com/ The Cook Political Report ] ]

A poll released in late September 2006 showed Sestak and Weldon locked in a statistical dead heat. Sestak lead Weldon 44-43 amongst likely voters in a Franklin & Marshall College Keystone Poll released September 29. The poll also found that 49 percent of registered voters in the district felt it was time for change in the district and only 37 percent said Weldon deserved re-election. [http://www.delcotimes.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17261171&BRD=1675&PAG=461&dept_id=18171&rfi=6]

Larry Sabato's Center for Politics, in late June, rated as one of the top thirty most competitive House races in the nation. Sabato has said that "Weldon has deep roots in this district, but his persistence on the issue of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has struck more than several observers as unusual." [ [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/?state=PA Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, Pennsylvania, 7th District, June 29, 2006 update] ]

Polling

See also

United States House elections, 2006

References

External links

* [http://www.sestakforcongress.com Sestak Campaign 2006 Website]
* [http://www.curtweldon.org/ Weldon's Campaign Website]
* [http://www.house.gov/curtweldon/ Weldon's Official House website]
* [http://www.pa7watch.com PA-7 Watch: Blogging 2006 PA-7 Congressional race between Joe Sestak and Curt Weldon]
* [http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/election_tags/pa_07 TPMCafe.com newsroll on PA-7]
* [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/9/221832/748 DailyKos overview of PA-7]
* [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/19/AR2006081900658_pf.html "GOP's Financial Edge Shrinks -- Challengers Gain On Incumbents"] "The Washington Post", August 20, 2006, article mentioning Sestak/Weldon race