- Global Scenario Group
The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was a team of environmental scholars, headed by
Paul Raskin , who usedscenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises. Convened by theTellus Institute and [http://www.sei.se Stockholm Environment Institute] in the year 1995, the GSG based its scenarios on quantitative social, economic, and environmental research from world regions with the help of [http://www.polestarproject.org Pole Star] , a comprehensive database and computational framework for representing alternative scenarios.cenarios
In 2002, the GSG formally presented their scenario approach in an essay called [http://www.gsg.org/gsgpub.html#GT "Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead"] . In the essay, the Great Transition scholars indicate that
civilization is currently at a turning point, entering aPlanetary Phase of Civilization in which different values regarding the environment, human well-being, andglobal justice might lead to different scenarios for future development. Three classes of scenarios are discussed – Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions.Conventional Worlds
The Conventional Worlds scenarios predict a future which unfolds without major surprises and with the continuity of present values. Market forces, new technologies, and policy adjustments allay environmental pressures as they arise.
Market Forces: The “invisible hand” of the
free market corrects for inefficiency and thus staves off environmental crisis.Policy Reform : Policy changes continually aim for sustainability by enforcing environmental efficiency wherever possible.Barbarization
Breakdown: The world descends into conflict and collapse.
Fortress World: In the face of environmental collapse, the international elite retreat to protected enclaves where they manage remaining natural resources and protect their interests. Outside these enclaves, the remainder of civilization endures poverty and degradation.
The Great Transition
The
Great Transition scenarios envision practical, plausible solutions to the social, economic, and environmental pressures which will inevitably worsen as time passes. The Great Transition future is more than simply market and policy adjustments. It is a future in which fundamental societal values change – materialism and self-interest decline replaced by new notions of “the good life” inclusive of human solidarity and environmentalsustainability . The potential of a Great Transition is linked to the emergence of aglobal citizens movement to advocate for new values to underpin global society.Eco-Communalism : Localism andcivil society help bring about the environmental transition. The Great Transitions scholars do not view this path as being incredibly plausible.New Sustainability Paradigm: Population stabilization, lower consumerism, and greener values create a more humane world. Civilization has a smaller
ecological footprint and its members live healthier, more equitable lives.Applicability of scenario analysis
This scenario framework has formed the backbone of numerous global, regional and national scenario assessments and has been adapted for UNEP’s Global Environment Assessment (or
Global Environment Outlook ). According to their website, “The GSG’s research program continues through an expanded effort called the [http://www.gtinitiative.org Great Transition Initiative] , that takes the GSG’s scenarios as a point of departure in an effort to widely share a vision of hope and generate greater unity among global citizens.” In addition, theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has based environmental assessments on the scenario analysis of the GSG.ee also
*
Globalization
*Global Citizens Movement
*Great Transition
*Planetary Phase of Civilization
*EcoCommunalism
*Tellus Institute External links
* [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] – A non-profit environmental policy organization
* [http://www.sei.se Stockholm Environment Insitute] – Research institute specializing in environmental sustainability
* [http://www.gsg.org Global Scenario Group] – An international initiative to examine alternative futures
* [http://www.gtinitiative.org Great Transition Initiative] -- carries forward the work of the Global Scenario GroupReferences
* [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios]
* [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/index.htm IPCC Report, Climate Change 2001: Mitigation]
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