Tropical Storm Nicholas (2003)

Infobox Hurricane
Name=Tropical Storm Nicholas
Type=Tropical storm
Year=2003
Basin=Atl
Image location=TS Nicholas 17 oct 2003 1345Z.jpg


Formed=October 13, 2003
Dissipated=November 1, 2003
1-min winds=60
Pressure=990
Da

Inflated=
Fatalities=None reported
Areas=Florida, Gulf Coast
Hurricane season=2003 Atlantic hurricane season

Tropical Storm Nicholas was a long lived tropical storm in October and November of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. Forming from a tropical wave on October 13 in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, Nicholas slowly developed due to moderate levels of wind shear throughout its lifetime. Deep convection slowly organized, and Nicholas attained a peak intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h) on October 17. After moving west-northwestward for much of its lifetime, it turned northward and weakened due to increasing shear. The storm again turned to the west and briefly restrengthened, but after turning again to the north Nicholas transitioned to an extratropical cyclone on October 24. As an extratropical storm, Nicholas executed a large loop to the west, and after moving erratically for a week and organizing into a tropical low, it was absorbed by a non-tropical low. The low continued westward, crossed Florida, and ultimately dissipated over the Gulf Coast of the United States on November 5.

Nicholas had no impact as a tropical cyclone, and impact from the low that absorbed the storm was limited to rainfall, gusty winds, and rough surf. Nicholas extended the above average levels of tropical cyclone activity throughout the 2003 season, and was one of fourteen seasons to reach fourteen storms. The low that absorbed the storm nearly developed into a tropical cyclone, which would have been called Odette. However, moderate wind shear prevented further development.

Meteorological history

The origin of Tropical Storm Nicholas can be traced to a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on October 9. It moved westward, and developed a broad area of low pressure along the wave on October 10.cite web|author=Jack Beven|year=2003|title=Tropical Storm Nicholas Tropical Cyclone Report|publisher=National Hurricane Center|accessdate=2006-10-13|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003nicholas.shtml?] Convection organized around the low early on October 12 while located 800 miles (1300 km) southwest of the Cape Verde islands.cite web|author=Stewart|year=2003|title=October 12 Tropical Weather Outlook|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-13|url=ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/2003/Oct/2003101209.ABNT20] As upper level winds became more favorable,cite web|author=Cobb/Jarvinen|year=2003|title=October 12 Tropical Weather Outlook (2)|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-13|url=ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/2003/Oct/2003101302.ABNT20] the system became better organized, though the circulation center initially remained located to the west of the area of heavy showers.cite web|author=Pasch|year=2003|title=October 13 Tropical Weather Outlook|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-13|url=ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/2003/Oct/2003101315.ABNT20] The surface circulation of the large circulation envelope moved towards a position near the western edge of the deepest convection, and it is estimated the system developed into Tropical Depression Nineteen late on October 13 while located 1,030 miles (1,660 km) west-southwest of the Cape Verde islands.cite web|author=Pasch|year=2003|title=Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion One|publisher=NHC|Accessdate=2006-10-13|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/dis/al192003.discus.001.shtml?]

Located within an area of moderate southwesterly wind shear, the depression was slow to organize; early on October 14, a clear center was not depicted on Infrared satellite imagery.Cite web|author=Franklin|year=2003|title=Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Two|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-13|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/dis/al192003.discus.002.shtml?] The depression moved to the west-northwest and gradually strengthened into Tropical Storm Nicholas late on October 14 while located 1,200 miles (1,930 km) east of the Windward Islands. On October 15, deep convection became much better organized, though the center of Nicholas remained displaced from the deepest of the shower activity.Cite web|author=Stewart|year=2003|title=Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Seven|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-13|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/dis/al192003.discus.007.shtml?] Despite the shear, the storm continued to strengthen as it moved to the west-northwest, a motion caused by a mid-level ridge to its north. On October 16, Nicholas transitioned from a sheared, unorganized system to a more organized system, as a result of banding features and improvement in its convective patterncite web|author=Stewart|year=2003|title=Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Eleven|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-13|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/dis/al192003.discus.011.shtml?] due to lesser amounts of vertical shear and a healthier anticyclone over the storm.cite web|author=Beven|year=2003|title=Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Thirteen|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-13|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/dis/al192003.discus.013.shtml?] Nicholas continued to strengthen, and attained a peak intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h) on October 17 while located 875 miles (1,410 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Dvorak estimates suggested Nicholas potentially attained hurricane status, though microwave images of the storm showed a sheared system without any evidence of an eye feature.

Shortly after peaking in strength, Nicholas weakened due to increasing southwesterly wind shear, and the center of circulation briefly became exposed from the deep convection.cite web|author=Beven|year=2003|title=Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Seventeen|publisher=NHC|Accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/dis/al192003.discus.017.shtml?] In response to a break in the subtropical ridge, the storm turned to the north on October 18. Nicholas turned more to the west on October 20, and later on the winds in the storm decreased to minimal storm strength. Convection diminished greatly, though Nicholas unexpectedly re-strengthened as deep convection refired.cite web|author=Pasch|year=2003|title=Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Thirty|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/dis/al192003.discus.030.shtml?] After reaching winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), the storm again weakened due to increasing shear, and after turning to the northwest Nicholas degenerated into a tropical depression on October 23. Nicholas tracked northward in response to a break in the subtropical ridge, and on October 24, after degenerating to a remnant low pressure area, Nicholas lost what tropical characteristics it retained and transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. The remnant storm executed a large anticyclonic loop, resulting in a westward motion and a brief re-intensification into an extratropical storm on October 29. The storm continued to the west along a warm front associated with a non-tropical low to its southwest, and executed a second anticyclonic loop to the south. On October 30, convection increased over the low-level circulation of what was left to Nicholas, and the National Hurricane Center indicated a potential for tropical or subtropical development as it moved towards warmer waters.Cite web|author=Stewart|year=2003|title=October 30 Tropical Weather Outlook|publisher=NHC|Accessdate=2006-10-14|url=ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/2003/Oct/2003103016.ABNT20] The system executed a small cyclonic loop, and on October 31 the system organized into a tropical low. It turned westward towards a non-tropical low, and on November 1 the remnants of Nicholas was absorbed by the low.

On November 1, convection increased in the complex system that absorbed the remnants of Nicholas, and the National Hurricane Center indicated the system could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone at any time.Cite web|author=Avila|year=2003|title=November 1 Tropical Weather Outlook|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/2003/Nov/2003110122.ABNT20] The low continued quickly westward, generating only sporadic convection, and crossed Florida on November 3. After entering the Gulf of Mexico, it turned to the west-northwest, and without organizing it made landfall in southeast Louisiana on November 4.Cite web|author=Avila|year=2003|title=November 4 Tropical Weather Outlook|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/2003/Nov/2003110502.ABNT20] It continued inland, and quickly weakened over Louisiana and Mississippi on November 5.cite web|author=Avila|year=2003|title=November 5 Tropical Weather Outlook|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-A/2003/Nov/2003110510.ABNT20]

Impact, records, and naming

Residents in the Lesser Antilles monitored the system due to the uncertainty in computer models. No effects were experienced as the storm turned northward.Cite web|author=Stormcarib.com|year=2003|title=Unofficial Reports from the Barbados|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2003/barbados.shtml] The non-tropical low that absorbed Nicholas dropped locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas and southern Florida, as well as in portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Gusty winds from the low produced heavy surf and rip currents along the east and west coast of Florida,cite web|author=Florida Department of Emergency Management|year=2006|title=News Archive|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.floridadisaster.org/archive_news/archive_news.htm] and a wind gust of 35 mph (55 km/h) was recorded in Cape Canaveral as a rainband from the system moved ashore.cite web|author=Mosely & Spratt|year=2004|title=UTILIZING A LOCAL DATA ASSIMILATION AND PROGNOSTIC SYSTEM TO AID WITH THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND IMPACT OF SHORT-RANGE TROPICAL WEATHER HAZARDS|publisher=NOAA|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/moselyspratt_2004.pdf] The low also resulted in two to four foot (0.6 to 1.2 m) swells along the East Coast of the United States.Cite web|author=Sean Collins|year=2003|title=Wavetraks November Newsletter|publisher=Surfline Forecast Team|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.surfline.com/newsletter/December03.html] Overall, no damage or deaths were associated with Nicholas or the low that absorbed it.

If Nicholas attained hurricane status, it would have been one of eight tropical cyclones to reach hurricane status in October in the deep tropical Atlantic since 1900.cite web|author=Pasch|year=2003|title=Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Five|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/dis/al192003.discus.005.shtml?] Nicholas had the second highest accumulated cyclone energy for a named tropical storm that did not reach hurricane status with 7.25, only behind Tropical Storm Laura of 1971 with 8.61.Cite web|author=Wikipedia|year=2006|title=|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy/Atlantic_by_ACE] cite web|author=Hurricane Research Division|year=2006|title=Hurdat Data for Tropical Cyclones 1851-2005|publisher=NOAA|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks1851to2005_atl.txt]

2003 was the first year a tropical storm was named Nicholas. It was the eighth time a season reached the "N" name, and one of fourteen seasons to have fourteen tropical storms.cite web|author=Hurricane Research Division|year=2006|title=Hurdat Data for Tropical Cyclones 1851-2005|publisher=NOAA|accessdate=2006-10-11|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks1851to2005_atl.txt] Operationally, the National Hurricane Center determined if the non-tropical low that absorbed Nicholas developed into a tropical or subtropical storm, it would be named Odette. In post-season analysis, the center considered classifying the system as an unnumbered tropical depression, though lack of sufficient characteristics of a tropical depression prevented the classification.cite web|author=Gary Padgett|year=2003|title=November 2003 Tropical Cyclone Summary|accessdate=2006-10-14|url=http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2004/summ0310.txt]

ee also

*Tropical cyclone
*List of storms in the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season

References

External links

* [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/NICHOLAS.shtml? NHC's archive on Tropical Storm Nicholas]
* [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003nicholas.shtml NHC's Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Nicholas]