Candidates of the Victorian legislative election, 2006

This article provides details on candidates preselected by political parties or who have nominated as independents for the 2006 Victorian election to be held on 25 November 2006.

Retiring MPs

Labor

Bundoora Labor MLA and Minister for Community Services Sherryl Garbutt is retiring. Justin Madden, the Minister for Sport and Recreation Justin Madden, who currently serves in the Legislative Council, was preselected as the ALP candidate, but then in October Colin Brooks, former Banyule councillor won the seat due to seat-shuffling caused by Mary Delahunty's resignation. Justin Madden is now apparently back on the Western Metrolpolitan Upper House ticket as #1 candidate, Fiona Richardson's former spot.

Footscray Labor MLA Bruce Mildenhall is retiring. The ALP candidate is Consumer Affairs Minister Marsha Thomson, who currently serves in the Legislative Council.

Preston Labor MLA Michael Leighton is retiring. One of his staffers, Robin Scott, has been preselected to stand for the ALP.

Lara Labor MLA Peter Loney is retiring after it became clear that he did not have the factional numbers to survive a planned preselection challenge. ALP preselection went to John Eren, a backbencher who currently serves in the Legislative Council.

Tarneit Labor MLA Mary Gillett has been forced to retire after losing preselection to Tim Pallas, current chief of staff to Premier Steve Bracks.

Narre Warren South Labor MLA Dale Wilson has been forced to retire after losing preselection to Judith Graley, an Electorate Officer for Minister Tim Holding. Dale Wilson has since allegedly been implicated for tax evasion after not filing a return for 12 years.

Northcote Labor MLA Mary Delahunty announced a last-minute decision to retire in October 2006. Fiona Richardson was given the candidacy in a factional deal brokered by Steve Bracks.

Doutta Galla Province Labor MLC and President of the Legislative Council Monica Gould is retiring. She will not have a direct replacement due to the forthcoming reforms of the Legislative Council.

Silvan Province Labor MLC Carolyn Hirsh is retiring. She will not have a direct replacement due to the forthcoming reforms of the Legislative Council.

Melbourne West Province Labor MLC Sang Nguyen has been forced to retire after being abruptly dumped by his Labor Unity faction, despite being initially re-endorsed. His dumping made way for the preselection of unionist Martin Pakula, who had previously launched a high-profile, but ultimately failed preselection challenge against former federal Labor leader Simon Crean. Khalil Eideh, the #2 candidate was preselected on the ticket.

Koonung Province Labor MLC Helen Buckingham was initially preselected as a candidate for the reformed Eastern Metropolitan Province, but decided to bow out on September 20, 2006 due to health reasons. Brian Tee, who had been the next candidate on the ticket, will take her winnable seat.

Liberal

Mornington Liberal MLA and veteran shadow minister Robin Cooper is retiring. David Morris has been endorsed by the Liberal Party to stand for election as his replacement.

Doncaster Liberal MLA and Shadow Minister for Education Victor Perton is retiring. Mary Wooldridge, sister of former federal health minister Michael Wooldridge, won preselection to stand for the Liberal Party.

Warrandyte Liberal MLA and former Liberal deputy leader Phil Honeywood is retiring. Ryan Smith has been endorsed to stand for the Liberal Party.

Malvern Liberal MLA and former Liberal leader Robert Doyle is retiring. Michael O'Brien will stand for the Liberal Party in his place.

Benambra Liberal MLA Tony Plowman is retiring. The Liberal Party has preselected Bill Tilley.

Waverley Province Liberal MLC Andrew Brideson is retiring. He will not have a direct replacement due to the forthcoming reforms of the Legislative Council.

South Eastern Province Liberal MLC Ron Bowden is retiring. He will not have a direct replacement due to the forthcoming reforms of the Legislative Council.

Templestowe Province Liberal MLC Bill Forwood is retiring. He will not have a direct replacement due to the forthcoming reforms of the Legislative Council.

Higinbotham Province Liberal MLC Chris Strong is retiring after being defeated by former MLA Inga Peulich in his bid to gain preselection for a winnable seat in the reconstituted Legislative Council.

National

Rodney National MLA Noel Maughan is retiring. Paul Weller, the president of the Victorian Farmers Federation, has been preselected as the National Party candidate for Rodney.

North Western Province National MLC Barry Bishop is retiring. He will not have a direct replacement due to the forthcoming reforms of the Legislative Council.

Legislative Assembly

Sitting members are in bold.

Legislative Council

The 40 members of the new Legislative Council will be elected under a proportional representation system.

Candidates considered likely to win are denoted in bold.

Preselected candidates who resigned

*Jack Reilly resigned as the No 1 People Power candidate for Northern Metropolitan on Saturday 16 September 2006.
*Helen Buckingham resigned as the No 3 ALP candidate for Eastern Metropolitan.
*Mary Delahunty resigned as the ALP incumbent candidate for Northcote.
*Stephen Mayne resigned as the No. 1 People Power candidate for Southern Metropolitan on October 18, 2006, but he reversed this decision on November 1, 2006.
*Wally Rogers resigned as the Liberal candidate for Yuroke due to illness.
*Frank Dawood resigned as the Liberal candidate for Dandenong.
*Andrew Olexander did not nominate after all

Analysis of contests for regions

Northern Metropolitan

On 2002 results it will be 3 Labor (57.4%, 3.45 quotas), 1 Liberal (23.0% 1.38 quotas) and 1 Greens (16.8% 1.01 quotas). The strong Labor vote means Labor would normally win three seats with the Liberals often battling the Greens for the last spot. Current polling suggests the Greens Greg Barber will win the fifth seat on primary votesAntony Green, [http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2005/vic_lc_boundaries_commentary.htm Analysis: The Draft Victorian Legislative Council Boundaries] , abc.net.au, 2006] .

Western Victoria

The result in this electorate may be affected by Labor's decision to demote popular incumbent Elaine Carbines to the third position. While sparking substantial criticism in the local press, it may eventuate in a high below-the-line vote for Carbines, and at least one coastal branch is threatening to place Carbines atop their how-to-vote cards. Former Victorian Premier Joan Kirner criticised the "grubby factional deal" that resulted in Carbines being demoted on the Labor ticket stating "She has been dealt such a grubby deal by certain leaders of the party. It strikes at the core values of the party — equality and justice. Certain 'fractions' and their leaders are prepared to put personal power ahead of long-term interest of the party". [ [http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/raw-deal-for-diligent-mp-says-kirner/2006/03/15/1142098529641.html Raw deal for diligent MP, says Kirner] , The Age, 16 March 2006]

Predictons based on 2002 results are 3 Labor (47.3% 2.84 quotas) 2 Liberal (37.1%, 2.23 quotas). Labor's results at recent elections in Geelong and Ballarat would deliver 3 seats (on 2002 results) if they get Green preferences. The Liberals would win the other two. The fifth seat would usually be a battle between Liberal and Labor. It has a weak minor party vote, making it very difficult for parties such as the Nationals or the Greens to win a seat. However, if Labor does poorly and directs preferences to the Nationals they may have a chance.

outhern Metropolitan

The fifth spot will be a contest between David Southwick and Sue Pennicuik. If the previous election's results are repeated, it will go to Pennicuik, but if current polling is correct, it will go to Southwick. Evan Thornley, one of Australia's first internet millionaires, is a star recruit for Labor. Predicted outcomes based on 2002 results are 2 Labor (37.9% 2.27 quotas), 2 Liberal (44.2% 2.65 quotas), 1 Greens (15.4% 0.93). There was a very high Green vote in Liberal seats such as Kew and Hawthorn in 2002. This is the Liberal's best seat in inner east Melbourne. A more normal result would be 3 Liberal 2 Labor.

Northern Victoria

Predictions based on 2002 results are 2 Labor (37.4% 2.24 quotas), 2 Liberal (29.8%, 1.79 quotas), 1 National (19.3%, 1.16 quotas). This region covers rural areas north of Melbourne right up to the Murray River. At a normal election, Labor would be expected to win two seats. The fifth seat would normally be a battle between the Liberals and Nationals for the final seat.

Eastern Metropolitan

Based on 2002 election results, Antony Green estimates that Labor will win 2 seats (43.3%, 2.6 quotas), the Liberals 2 (44.3%, 2.66 quotas), Greens 1 (10.5%, 0.63 quota).

South East Metropolitan

Based on 2002 election results, Antony Green estimates that Labor will win 2 seats (54.2%, 3.25 quotas), the Liberals 2 (34.6%, 2.07 quotas). This region covers the Frankston, Cranbourne, Dandenong growth corridor. At a closer election than 2002, this would be one of the very competitive region for the final seat.

Western Metropolitan

Martin Pakula (Labor) is a high profile unionist candidate, who recently lost a challenge to Simon Crean for federal preselection. He has been installed at a safe position on the Labor ticket by the Labor Unity (Right) faction, bumping Sang Nguyen out of parliament against his will. [ [http://theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,18470108-601,00.html State MP bumped for Pakula] , The Australian, 15 March 2006]

Predictions based on 2002 results are 4 Labor (62.2% 3.73 quotas), 1 Liberal (25.6%, 1.54 quota), 1 Greens (9.6%, 0.58 quota). Labor using Liberal or Green preferences to win the last seat. The strong support for Labor means they will always win three seats. A more normal result would be 3 Labor 2 Liberal, with the possibility of a minor party winning Labor's forth seat on Liberal preferences .

Eastern Victoria

This region covers Gippsland and the Mornington Peninsula and the semi-rural edge of Melbourne's east including the Dandenongs. If the results of the last election are repeated, it will be a contest for the fifth spot between Glenyys Romannes and Louis Delacretaz .

Predictons based on 2002 results are 2 Labor (40.6% 2.44 quotas) 2 Liberal (37.0%, 2.22 quotas), 1 Greens (10.7% 0.64 quotas). The last seat will be very close contest with the Greens favoured on Labor preferences. At a more normal election, the fifth seat would be fought out between the Liberal's Susie Manson and the National's Peter Hall

Optional Preferential Voting in the Upper House

The preference flow is not predictable currently as voters will be using optional preferential voting for the first time and may choose to only use numbers 1 to 5 on the ballot paper for the 5 candidates of their choice. Voters do not, for the Upper house only, have to fill in every box on the ballot paper.

ee also

* Members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, 2002-2006
* Members of the Victorian Legislative Council, 2002-2006
* Victorian state election, 2006
* 2006 Victorian election marginal seats
* Results of the Victorian state election, 2006

References

* [http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2006_03_15_andrewlanderyou_archive.html National Executive finalises Victorian Upper House Ticket] , 14 March 2006
* [http://www.vic.liberal.org.au/StateElection/UCandidates.htm Liberal Candidates for the 2006 Election]
* [http://www.vic.nationals.org.au/news/article.aspx?ID=4039 Peter Hall to stand for Gippsland Province]
* [http://www.vicnats.com/news/article.aspx?ID=4101 Nationals ticket for Northern Region] , 8 May 2006
* [http://www.peoplepower.org.au/victoriancandidates.htm People Power Victorian Candidates] , 7 June 2006
* [http://www.peoplepower.org.au/VictorianStateElection.htm People Power Victorian State Election] , 7 June 2006
* [http://www.countryalliance.org.au/candidates.htm Country Alliance: Rural - Regional - Recreational Candidates] , 7 June 2006
* [http://www.stefanoupperhouse.com/ Stefano de Pieri - Candidate for Northern Victoria Region] , 7 June 2006
* [http://www.dlp.org.au/candidates.htm Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia - http://www.dlp.org.au] , 20 June 2006
* [http://www.vic.liberal.org.au/default.cfm?action=people&type=4&candidate=1 Liberal Candidates for the 2006 Election] , 21 June 2006
* [http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/another-party-shooting-at-its-own-foot/2006/06/29/1151174329072.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1 The Age - Another party shooting at its own foot - Warrandyte Liberal pre-selection] , 30 June 2006
* [http://www.vic.greens.org.au/news_listing Greens Candidates]