Opinion polling for the Peruvian national election, 2006

Opinion polling for the Peruvian national election, 2006

Opinion polling for the 2006 Peruvian national election was carried out by pollsters authorized by the National Election Jury [1] both in the races for the Presidency and Congress.

Several candidates expressed skepticism about poll results and even accused the pollsters of deliberately lying.[2] The Peruvian Association of Market Research (Asociación Peruana de Investigación de Mercados, APEIM) rejected such criticism and demanded formal apologies by those who accused the companies.[3] APEIM also criticized the pollster IDICE, not belonging to the association, for critical flaws in its methodology.[4] The company's results are nevertheless included in the section below.

Also, it is illegal to publish electoral opinion polls in Peru during the week prior to an election. Pollsters, however, released their results to the foreign press during the week before the First Round and these were widely available on the Internet. This drew criticism from electoral authorities, even though no law was technically broken.[5]

Contents

Poll results

The following is a collection of polls relating to the 2006 Peruvian national election. Only polls conducted nationwide are included, though some have an urban bias. The results below only consider the eventual top five presidential candidates, top six congressional lists and, in the case of the hypothetical runoff, matchups between the top three presidential candidates. Little information is available on the other options.

The dates indicate when each survey was conducted. If the sources are not clear about the precise dates, either the month or the date of publication is indicated. In the latter case, the date is marked with a (p).

Unless stated otherwise, entries correspond to percentages over the total number of votes. When reported in terms of "valid" votes, the percentages are included in parentheses. Valid votes are those cast for exactly one presidential ticket or one congressional party list, thus excluding blank, multiple-party votes and undecided voters. The official results consider only valid votes.

Entries with "n/a" correspond to instances in which the relevant question was not asked, the option was not given, or the quantity was not deemed significant enough when the survey was published.

The abbreviations used for parties are as follows (coalition members are indented):

  • PAP - Peruvian Aprista Party (Partido Aprista Peruano)
  • UN - National Unity (Unidad Nacional)
  • AF - Alliance for the Future (Alianza por el Futuro)
  • C90 - Change 90 (Cambio 90)
  • NM - New Majority (Nueva Mayoría)
  
  • AP - Popular Action (Acción Popular)
  • SP - We Are Peru (Somos Perú)
  • PP - Peru Possible (Perú Posible)
  • SC - Sí Cumple

The abbreviations used for pollsters are:

  • Apoyo - Apoyo Opinión y Mercado
  • AyC - Analistas y Consultores
  • Conecta - Conecta Asociados
  • CPI - Compañía Peruana de Investigación de Mercados
    y Opinión Pública
  • Datum - Datum Internacional
  • IDICE - Instituto de Desarrollo e Investigación
    de Ciencias Económicas
  
  • IMA - IMA Estudios de Marketing
  • POP - Peruana de Opinión Pública
  • PUCP - Instituto de Opinión Pública,
    Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
  • UAP - Universidad Alas Peruanas
  • UL - Grupo de Opinión Pública, Universidad de Lima
  • UNI - Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales,
    Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería

Presidential Election

The deadline for the registration of presidential candidates was 9 January 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative in nature, since the final set of options was not yet known before then.

First Round

Dates Pollster Source O. Humala
(UPP)		 A. García
(PAP)		 L. Flores
(UN)		 M. Chávez
(AF)		 V. Paniagua
(FC)
Jan 2005 Datum [6] 3 % 18 % 17 % n/a 24 %
1-8 Apr 2005 CPI [7] 2.8 % 17.5 % 16.0 % 7.2 % 14.7 %
Apr 2005 Apoyo [8] 5 % 21 % 17 % n/a 23 %
May 2005 Datum [9] 3 % 19 % 23 % n/a 29 %
June 2005 Datum [10] 5 % 20 % 19 % n/a 16 %
6-12 July 2005 CPI [11] 2.3 % 15.5 % 17.5 % 9.6 % 12.8 %
Aug 2005 Apoyo [12] 7 % 18 % 22 % n/a 18 %
Aug 2005 Datum [13] 5 % 20 % 26 % n/a 19 %
Sep 2005 Datum [14] 5 % 18 % 23 % n/a 13 %
10-14 Oct 2005 Apoyo [15] 8 % 17 % 27 % n/a 15 %
13-23 Oct 2005 IDICE [16] 9.1 % 23.6 % 26.5 % n/a 7.6 %
22-28 Oct 2005 CPI [17] 5.1 % 12.0 % 27.6 % 9.5 % 10.0 %
10-11 Nov 2005 Apoyo [18] 11 % 17 % 28 % n/a 17 %
12-15 Nov 2005 Datum [19] 13 % 16 % 30 % n/a 15 %
19-23 Nov 2005 CPI [20] 15.0 % 13.4 % 25.6 % 1.5 % 11.3 %
3-4 Dec 2005 UL [21] 14.6 % 16.2 % 25.6 % 2.4 % 8.3 %
3-8 Dec 2005 Apoyo [22] 22 % 16 % 25 % n/a 14 %
16-19 Nov 2005 Datum [23] 23 % 15 % 26 % 1 % 12 %
19-23 Dec 2005 IDICE [24] 21.7 % 19.8 % 21.2 % n/a 16.7 %
9-12 Jan 2006 IDICE [25] 26.3 % 20.3 % 20.7 % 7.0 % 11.2 %
11-13 Jan 2006 Apoyo [26] 28 % 15 % 25 % 2 % 10 %
13-14 Jan 2006 Datum [27] 25 % 14 % 26 % n/a 11 %
16-19 Jan 2006 POP [28] 25 % 14 % 30 % 2 % 11 %
20-22 Jan 2006 UL [29] 16.8 % 11.9 % 28.1 % 2.5 % 7.2 %
21-23 Jan 2006 AyC [30] 19.5 % 14.6 % 30.9 % 1.8 % 14.2 %
21-24 Jan 2006 CPI [31] 18.2 % 13.1 % 28.8 % n/a 6.3 %
25-27 Jan 2006 Apoyo [32] 22 % 13 % 30 % n/a 8 %
21-28 Jan 2006 IMA [33] 18.7 % 14.7 % 27.2 % 4.2 % 5.5 %
3-5 Feb 2006 IDICE [34] 18.4 % 20.8 % 27.2 % 8.1 % 6.1 %
8-10 Feb 2006 Apoyo [35] 20 % (25 %) 13 % (17 %) 27 % (35 %) 4 % (6 %) 7 % (8 %)
10-11 Feb 2006 Datum [36] 24 % (28 %) 15 % (18 %) 29 % (34 %) 4 % (5 %) 8 % (10 %)
11-15 Feb 2006 UAP [37] 21.4 % 16.8 % 23.3 % 3.5 % 6.0 %
15-17 Feb 2006 Conecta [38] 18.3 % (18.3 %) 16.0 % (20.5 %) 27.3 % (34.8 %) 3.5 % (4.4 %) 8.6 % (11.0 %)
16-18 Feb 2006 AyC [39] 19.4 % 16.3 % 29.2 % 3.8 % 4.9 %
22-24 Feb 2006 Apoyo [40] 19 % (26 %) 16 % (22 %) 24 % (33 %) 3 % (4 %) 5 % (7 %)
24-26 Feb 2006 PUCP [41] 20 % (25 %) 14 % (18 %) 29 % (35 %) 4 % (5 %) 6 % (8 %)
24-26 Feb 2006 UL [42] 20.6 % (27.6 %) 15.3 % (20.5 %) 25.1 % (33.6 %) 3.6 % (4.8 %) 6.4 % (8.5 %)
24-26 Feb 2006 IDICE [43] 19.3 % 22.4 % 24.3 % 7.1 % 5.6 %
26 Feb 2006 (p) POP [44] 22 % 16 % 30 % 4 % n/a
23-27 Feb 2006 CPI [45] (25.5 %) (21.5 %) (34.1 %) (4.9 %) (7.8 %)
24 Feb-2 Mar 2006 IMA [46] 21.6 % 20.1 % 26.9 % 2.8 % 4.5 %
8-10 Mar 2006 Apoyo [47] 22 % (30 %) 16 % (22 %) 23 % (31 %) 4 % (5 %) 4 % (5 %)
10-12 Mar 2006 Datum [48] 26 % 19 % 27 % 4 % 8 %
11-13 Mar 2006 IDICE [49] 23.3 % 22.8 % 23.6 % 5.0 % 6.1 %
15-17 Mar 2006 Apoyo [50] 27 % (32 %) 17 % (21 %) 23 % (28 %) 6 % (6 %) 6 % (7 %)
15-19 Mar 2006 CPI [51] (31.6 %) (21.6 %) (21.9 %) (5.5 %) (6.0 %)
18-19 Mar 2006 UNI [52] 28.8 % 16.3 % 24.8 % 3.8 % 5.3 %
19 Mar 2006 UAP [53] 28.9 % 16.9 % 23.1 % 5.5 % 5.9 %
20-22 Mar 2006 IDICE [54] 26.8 % 24.4 % 21.6 % 5.7 % 4.7 %
22-24 Mar 2006 Apoyo [55] 27 % (33 %) 18 % (22 %) 22 % (27 %) 6 % (7 %) 5 % (6 %)
23-25 Mar 2006 Conecta [56] 30.4 % (30.4 %) 18.3 % (20.6 %) 24.5 % (27.7 %) 5.1 % (5.7 %) 4.4 % (5.0 %)
24-26 Mar 2006 PUCP [57] 27 % (31 %) 18 % (20 %) 24 % (27 %) 6 % (7 %) 6 % (7 %)
24-26 Mar 2006 UL [58] 28.2 % (32.6 %) 19.9 % (22.7 %) 22.9 % (26.1 %) 5.4 % (6.3 %) 4.9 % (5.6 %)
27 Mar 2006 (p) Datum [59] 31 % 21 % 26 % 6 % 5 %
27-31 Mar 2006 CPI [60] (31.5 %) (23.1 %) (26.8 %) (5.9 %) (6.7 %)
27-31 Mar 2006 Apoyo [61] 26 % (31 %) 19 % (23 %) 22 % (26 %) 6 % (7 %) 5 % (6 %)
4-6 Apr 2006 IDICE [62] 27.7 % (31.8 %) 22.6 % (25.9 %) 19.6 % (22.5 %) 3.9 % (4.5 %) 7.5 % (8.6 %)
5 Apr 2006 Datum [63] (26 %) (24 %) (24 %) (8 %) (7 %)
5 Apr 2006 UL [64] 26.2 % (29.2 %) 19.7 % (21.9 %) 23.0 % (25.6 %) 7.4 % (8.3 %) 6.4 % (7.2 %)
8 Apr 2006 Apoyo [65] 24 % (27 %) 21 % (23 %) 21 % (23 %) 7 % (7 %) 7 % (8 %)

Hypothetical Runoff Election (polls before First Round)

Dates Pollster Source O. Humala (UPP)
vs
A. García (PAP)		 O. Humala (UPP)
vs
L. Flores (UN)		 A. García (PAP)
vs
L. Flores (UN)
13-23 Oct 2005 IDICE [66] n/a n/a 35.4 % - 42.1 %
22-28 Oct 2005 CPI [67] n/a n/a 23.6 % - 51.5 %
10-11 Nov 2005 Apoyo [68] 30 % - 31 % 23 % - 58 % 23 % - 56 %
12-15 Nov 2005 Datum [69] n/a 23 % - 58 % 23 % - 54 %
3-4 Dec 2005 UL [70] 33.0 % - 34.5 % 27.1 % - 60.4 % 25.9 % - 59.6 %
3-8 Dec 2005 Apoyo [71] 44 % - 31 % 35 % - 50 % 26 % - 54 %
16-19 Dec 2005 Datum [72] n/a 34 % - 50 % 24 % - 53 %
11-13 Jan 2006 Apoyo [73] 44 % - 29 % 39 % - 46 % 23 % - 56 %
13-14 Jan 2006 Datum [74] 41 % - 28 % 35 % - 50 % 25 % - 52 %
20-22 Jan 2006 UL [75] 34.2 % – 32.9 % 27.7 % - 51.1 % 22.6 % - 60.0 %
25-27 Jan 2006 Apoyo [76] 40 % - 30 % 34 % - 52 % 22 % - 57 %
21-28 Jan 2006 IMA [77] 31.5 % - 29.2 % 27.5 % - 46.0 % 22.9 % - 44.6 %
8-10 Feb 2006 Apoyo [78] 37 % - 35 %
(51 % - 49 %)		 33 % - 52 %
(39 % - 61 %)		 27 % - 54 %
(33 % - 67 %)
10-11 Feb 2006 Datum [79] n/a 34 % - 50 % 25 % - 54 %
11-15 Feb 2006 UAP [80] 34.9 % - 28.3 % 32.6 % - 42.8 % 24.8 % - 44.6 %
15-17 Feb 2006 Conecta [81] 32 % - 29 % 31 % - 48 % 26 % - 45 %
22-24 Feb 2006 Apoyo [82] 36 % – 37 %
(50 % - 50 %)		 34 % - 50 %
(40 % - 60 %)		 31 % - 50 %
(38 % - 62 %)
23-27 Feb 2006 CPI [83] 34.8 % - 37.5 %
(48.1 % - 51.9 %)		 31.1 % - 48.6 %
(39.0 % - 61.0 %)		 29.0 % - 47.9 %
(37.7 % - 62.3 %)
24-26 Feb 2006 PUCP [84] 33.7 % – 33.5 % 30.2 % - 50.5 % 26.8 % - 51.1 %
24-26 Feb 2006 UL [85] 36.7 % – 32.3 % 33.3 % - 49.6 % 27.1 % - 52.2 %
24 Feb-2 Mar 2006 IMA [86] 32.3 % - 33.8 % 28.8 % - 43.1 % 28.4 % - 40.9 %
8-10 Mar 2006 Apoyo [87] 41 % - 36 %
(52 % - 47 %)		 39 % - 46 %
(46 % - 54 %)		 32 % - 47 %
(41 % - 59 %)
10-12 Mar 2006 Datum [88] 40 % - 33 % 36 % - 47 % 29 % - 48 %
15-17 Mar 2006 Apoyo [89] 45 % - 33 %
(57 % - 43 %)		 43 % - 44 %
(50 % - 50 %)		 33 % - 46 %
(41 % - 59 %)
15-19 Mar 2006 CPI [90] 38.5 % – 32.0 %
(54.3 % - 45.7 %)		 36.6 % - 41.5 %
(47.1 % - 52.9 %)		 29.0 % - 43.2 %
(40.5 % - 59.5 %)
18-19 Mar 2006 UNI [91] 39.1 % - 29.6 % 37.5 % - 40.4 % 28.3 % - 42.9 %
19 Mar 2006 UAP [92] 39.5 % - 29.5 % 38.8 % - 38.8 % 28.2 % - 41.2 %
22-24 Mar 2006 Apoyo [93] 42 % - 39 %
(52 % - 48 %)		 40 % - 47 %
(47 % - 53 %)		 35 % - 46 %
(43 % - 57 %)
23-25 Mar 2006 Conecta [94] 41 % - 33 % 39 % - 41 % 31 % - 41 %
24-26 Mar 2006 PUCP [95] (53 % - 47 %) (45 % - 55 %) (41 % - 59 %)
24-26 Mar 2006 UL [96] 43.9 % - 36.7 % 41.3 % - 46.6 % 31.5 % - 48.0 %
27-31 Mar 2006 Apoyo [97] 39 % - 37 %
(51 % - 49 %)		 38 % - 46 %
(45 % - 55 %)		 32 % - 45 %
(42 % - 58 %)
27-31 Mar 2006 CPI [98] (49.7 - 50.3 %) (44.9 % - 55.1 %) (41.5 % - 58.5 %)
5 Apr 2006 UL [99] 37.7 % - 41.3 % 37.3 % - 48.6 % n/a

Runoff Election (polls after First Round)

Dates Pollster Source Ollanta Humala
(UPP)		 Alan García
(PAP)
19-21 Apr 2006 Datum [100] 37 % (46 %) 43 % (54 %)
29 Apr-1 May 2006 Datum [101] 34 % (44 %) 43 % (56 %)
28 Apr-3 May 2006 IDICE [102] 34.8 % (45.9 %) 42.5 % (55.0 %)
19-21 Apr 2006 Apoyo [103] 34 % (43 %) 44 % (57 %)
2-7 May 2006 CPI [104] (38.6 %) (61.4 %)
6-8 May 2006 Datum [105] 33 % (43 %) 44 % (57 %)
10-12 May 2006 Apoyo [106] 34 % (44 %) 43 % (56 %)
12-14 May 2006 UL [107] 31.1 % (38.1 %) 50.6 % (61.9 %)
18-19 May 2006 Datum [108] 35 % (42 %) 47 % (58 %)
18-21 May 2006 PUCP [109] 35 % (46 %) 42 % (54 %)
19-21 May 2006 UL [110] 31.3 % (38.8 %) 49.3 % (61.2 %)
24-25 May 2006 CPI [111] (40.1 %) (59.9 %)
23-26 May 2006 IDICE [112] 36.8 % (36.8 %) 48.2 % (56.7 %)
24-26 May 2006 Apoyo [113] 36 % (45 %) 44 % (55 %)
25-26 May 2006 Datum [114] (42 %) (58 %)
27 May 2006 (p) Conecta [115] 34.7 % (43.1 %) 45.8 % (56.9 %)
30-31 May 2006 Apoyo [116] (47 %) (53 %)
31 May 2006 Datum [117] (43 %) (57 %)
31 May 2006 UL [118] (44.1 %) (55.9 %)
31 May-1 June 2006 CPI [119] (46.2 %) (53.8 %)
3 June 2006 Apoyo [120] (47 %) (53 %)

Congressional Election

The deadline for the registration of congressional candidates was 8 February 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative. For many of these early polls, several coalitions were not even official, so some responses included parties which did not end up running by themselves. These are included in some entries below, along with the appropriate abbreviation as outlined above.

In particular, while the Sí Cumple party did not officially belong to Alliance for the Future, pollsters themselves often lumped it together with the other fujimorista movements before the AF coalition came into being, largely due to the perception that the same politicians belonged to these parties. This is not technically correct, but Sí Cumple results are still included below, though with an asterisk to make the difference clear (SC*).

Projected seat allocation in Congress, out of 120 seats, are included in square brackets when available.

Dates Pollster Source UPP PAP UN AF FC PP
13-23 Oct 2005 IDICE [121] 10.7 % PNP 17.7 % 13.1 % 11.1 % SC* 7.9 % AP
5.3 % SP		 2.2 %
22-28 Oct 2005 CPI [122] 3.4 % PNP 13.8 % 14.3 %
10.4 % SN		 8.6 % SC* 10.2 % AP
3.1 % SP		 1.3 %
10-11 Nov 2005 Apoyo [123] 8 % 17 % 15 % 12 % C90/NM/SC* 8 % AP
4 % SP		 2 %
12-15 Nov 2005 Datum [124] 2 % PNP 15 % 17 % 9 % C90/SC* 9 % AP
2 % SP		 2.2 %
3-4 Dec 2005 UL [125] 1.6 % 17.1 % 18.2 % 6.4 % SC* 10.6 % AP 2.3 %
16-19 Dec 2005 Datum [126] 9  % PNP 17 % 24 % 4 % SC* 5 % n/a
19-23 Dec 2005 IDICE [127] 14.9 % PNP 18.7 % 16.3 % 6.8 % SC* 15.0 % 3.6 %
9-12 Jan 2006 IDICE [128] 22.9 % 19.1 % 17.8 % 7.7 % 11.3 % 5.0 %
11-13 Jan 2006 Apoyo [129] 12 % 15 % 17 % 2 %
6 % SC*		 7 % 1 %
20-22 Jan 2006 UL [130] 8.2 % 20.2 % 14.6 % 2.8 % 5.6 % 2.5 %
21-28 Jan 2006 IMA [131] 4.4 % 7.7 % 7.8 % 2.2 % 2.7 % 0.2 %
8-10 Feb 2006 Apoyo [132] 10 % (15 %) 13 % (21 %) 18 % (27 %) 4 % (7 %) 6 % (10 %) 2 % (3 %)
10-11 Feb 2006 Datum [133] 8 % 14 % 16 % n/a 4 % 1 %
22-24 Feb 2006 Apoyo [134] 9 % (15 %) 26 % (16 %) 14 % (22 %) 4 % (6 %) 6 % (9 %) 2 % (4 %)
24-26 Feb 2006 PUCP [135] 6.0 % (10.8 %) 13.5 % (21.1 %) 16.7 % (26.1 %) 3.6 % (5.7 %) 4.2 % (6.6 %) 3.2 % (5.0 %)
24-26 Feb 2006 IDICE [136] 12.6 %
[17 seats]		 17.8 %
[34 seats]		 15.4 %
[21 seats]		 10.6 %
[16 seats]		 7.8 %
[10 seats]		 2.0 %
[1 seat]
24-26 Feb 2006 UL [137] 6.5 % (10.5 %) 14.7 % (23.5 %) 14.8 % (23.7 %) 3.9 % (6.3 %) 6.9 % (11.0 %) 3.0 % (4.9 %)
23-27 Feb 2006 CPI [138] 8.1 % (13.6 %) 13.6 % (22.7 %) 14.3 % (23.5 %) 3.1 % (5.2 %) 8.7 % (14.6 %) 1.9 % (3.2 %)
24 Feb-2 Mar 2006 IMA [139] 8.5 % 14.8 % 13.7 % 3.7 % 4.5 % 1.4 %
8-10 Mar 2006 Apoyo [140] 11 % (17 %) 15 % (23 %) 13 % (20 %) 6 % (9 %) 5 % (8 %) 2 % (3 %)
10-12 Mar 2006 Datum [141] 13 % 17 % 18 % 6 % 6 % 2 %
11-13 Mar 2006 IDICE [142] 14.2 % 18.9 % 15.9 % 8.8 % 8.1 % 2.0 %
15-17 Mar 2006 Apoyo [143] 12 % (16 %) 16 % (22 %) 13 % (18 %) 8 % (12 %) 5 % (7 %) 3 % (4 %)
15-19 Mar 2006 CPI [144] 9.2 % (15.5 %) 13.1 % (21.4 %) 11.8 % (18.9 %) 6.7 % (10.5 %) 6.0 % (9.7 %) 3.8 % (5.8 %)
18-19 Mar 2006 UNI [145] 16.8 % 17.2 % 17.0 % 6.1 % 6.8 % n/a
22-24 Mar 2006 Apoyo [146] 11 % (16 %) 14 % (21 %) 11 % (16 %) 8 % (11 %) 5 % (7 %) 4 % (6 %)
23-25 Mar 2006 Conecta [147] 15.8 % (20.9 %) 17.2 % (22.7 %) 17.4 % (23.0 %) 5.2 % (6.9 %) 4.8 % (6.3 %) 2.5 % (3.3 %)
24-26 Mar 2006 PUCP [148] 14.1 % 15.1 % 16.1 % 9.4 % 4.5 % 2.6 %
24-26 Mar 2006 UL [149] 10.7 % (14.2 %) 15.8 % (21.0 %) 14.2 % (18.8 %) 8.5 % (11.3 %) 6.5 % (8.6 %) 4.1 % (5.5 %)
27-31 Mar 2006 Apoyo [150] 11 % (16 %)
[31 seats]		 14 % (19 %)
[36 seats]		 12 % (16 %)
[25 seats]		 11 % (15 %)
[15 seats]		 6 % (9 %)
[8 seats]		 4 % (6 %)
[5 seats]
5 Apr 2006 Datum [151] [36 seats] [36 seats] [23 seats] [17 seats] [8 seats] [0 seats]
5 Apr 2006 UL [152] 11.6 % (14.6 %) 15.4 % (19.4 %) 13.5 % (17.0 %) 11.8 % (14.8 %) 5.8 % (7.4 %) 3.8 % (4.9 %)
8 Apr 2006 Apoyo [153] [29 seats] [38 seats] [24 seats] [14 seats] [9 seats] [3 seats]

See also

  • Peruvian national election, 2006

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