Product forecasting

Product forecasting is the science of predicting the degree of success a new product will enjoy in the marketplace. To do this, the forecasting model must take into account such things as product awareness, distribution, price, fulfilling unmeet needs and competitive alternatives.

Bass model

$frac\{f(t)\}\{1-F(t)\}\; =\; p\; +\; frac\{q\}\{m\}\; N(t)$

where,
* F(t) is the probability of adoption at time t
* f(t) is the rate at which adoption is changing with respect to t
* N(t) is the number of adopters at time t
* m is the total number of consumers who will eventually adopt
* p is the coefficient of innovation
* q is the coefficient of imitation

Multivariate techniques such as regression can be used to determine the values of p, q and N if historical sales data is available.

Assessor model

The Assessor model was developed at MIT by Silk and Urban (1978). Assessor is a trial and repeat model that determines final market share as the product of trial and repeat. Assessor is actually a series of models that each determine key inputs into the model.

Preference

By examining the brand preference for each brand in a competitive context, preference shares for each brand can be determined.

Awareness Model

Based on the brands planned marketing mix of advertising in multiple vehicles, the ultimate brand awareness can be projected through time.

Sources

* Frank Bass (1969), "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables" Management Science, 15, 215-227
* A. J. Silk and G. L. Urban (1978), “Pre-Test-Market Evaluation of New Packaged Goods: A Model and Measurement Methodology,” Journal of Marketing Research, 15 (May) 171-191.