Overshoot (ecology)

In ecology, overshoot occurs when a population exceeds the long term carrying capacity of its environment. The consequence of overshoot is called a crash or die-off. An attempt to apply this concept to human experience is Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, by William R. Catton, Jr. Also see Limits to growth: The 30-year update, by Meadows, Randers & Meadows,^[1] which updates the 1974 book, The Limits to Growth. The Limits to Growth simulation showed in several scenarios how overshoot could happen based on an assumption of hard limits to resources, but did not deal with questions of substitution of limited resources with renewable resources.^{[citation needed]}

Compare to the overshoot of a signal, where a signal exceeds its steady state value.

The eradication of disease can trigger overshoot when a population suddenly exceeds the land's carrying capacity. An example of this occurred on the Horn of Africa when smallpox was eliminated. A region that had supported around 1 million pastoralists for centuries was suddenly expected to support 14 million people. The result was overgrazing, which led to soil erosion.^[2]

See also

	Environment portal
	Ecology portal

• Food security
• Overpopulation

References

1. ^ Meadows, Donella; Jørgen Randers, & Dennis Meadows (2004). Limits to growth: The 30-year update. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing Company. pp. 337. ISBN 1931498512. 
2. ^ Debora MacKenzie (10 Octocber 2011). "Low-key projects keep Horn of Africa famine at bay". NewScientist (Reed Business Information). http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21029-lowkey-projects-keep-horn-of-africa-famine-at-bay.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news. Retrieved 11 Octocber 2011.