Track forecast cone

[
Hurricane Katrina's five-day track forecast, showing the storm's track forecast cone] The track forecast cone is the name employed by the National Hurricane Center for the graphical representation of the uncertainty in its forecasts of a tropical cyclone's future location.

The cone represents the probable position of a tropical cyclone's circulation center, and is made by drawing a set of circles centered at each forecast point—12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hours for a three-day forecast, as well as 96 and 120 hours for a five-day forecast. The radius of each circle is equal to encompass two-thirds of the historical official forecast errors for the preceding five year period. The cone is then constructed by drawing a tangent line that connects the outside boundary of all the circles. The National Hurricane Center states that the entire track of the tropical cyclone "can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time."cite web | author = National Hurricane Center | url = http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml | title = Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone | publisher = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | accessdate = 2008-08-27 | year = 2008]

See also

* 1-2-3 rule

References