Real exchange rate puzzles
- Real exchange rate puzzles
«The real exchange rate puzzles» is a common term for two much-discussed anomalies of real exchange rates: that real exchange rates are more "volatile" and show more "persistence" than what most models can account for. These two anomalies are sometimes referred to as the «PPP puzzles».
Dornbusch (1976) [cite journal | author= Rudiger Dornbusch | title= Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics | journal=Journal of Political Economy | year=1976 | volume=84 | issue=6 | pages=1161–1176 | url= | doi= 10.1086/260506 ] ‘exchange rate overshooting’ hypothesis argued that exchange rate volatility is essentially driven by monetary shocks interacting with sticky prices. This model can account for real exchange rate volatility, but does not say anything about the volatility of relative to output or the persistence of the real exchange rate movements.
Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2002) [citation| last1 = Chari| first1 = V.V. | last2 = Kehoe | first2 = Patrick J.| last3 = McGrattan | first3=Ellen| title= Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates? | journal=Review of Economic Studies | year=2002 | volume=69 | issue=3 | pages=533–563| url= | doi= ] showed how a model with two countries and where prices were only allowed to change once-a-year had the potential to simultaneously account for the volatility of U.S. output and real exchange rates.
These two anomalies are related to, but should not be confused with, the Backus-Smith consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which is the observation that in most economic models the correlation between the real exchange rate and relative consumption is high and positive, whereas in the data it ranges from small and positive to negative.
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