Glenrothes by-election, 2008

The 2008 Glenrothes by-election will be a by-election for the United Kingdom Parliament's House of Commons constituency of Glenrothes in Fife, Scotland. The seat fell vacant after the death of previous member, John MacDougall (Labour), who died of mesothelioma, on 13 August 2008, aged 60.cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/scotland_politics/7557933.stm|title=MP MacDougall dies after illness|job=BBC News|date=2008-08-13|accessdate=2008-08-13] The by-election is set for 6 November 2008. cite news|url= http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7655805.stm|title= Glenrothes by-election date set |first=|last= |publisher=BBC News |date=6 October 2008] .

Background

Fife is traditionally a stronghold for the Labour Party. McDougall had held Glenrothes and its forerunner, Central Fife, since 2001, when he succeeded Henry McLeish. Willie Hamilton had previously represented the area, which has elected Labour MPs since Hamilton won West Fife from the Communist Party of Great Britain in 1950.

The poll follows a run of poor by-election results for the Labour Party, which have included a loss to the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Glasgow East, formerly the party's twenty-fifth safest seat in Britain. Glenrothes has a considerably smaller Labour majority than Glasgow East had.Gerri Peev, " [http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/New-Scots-vote-gives-Brown.4388537.jp New Scots vote gives Brown three months to save political skin] ", "The Scotsman", 14 August 2008]

According to the "Financial Times", Labour have privately admitted that they expect to lose Glenrothes to the SNP.George Parker and Jim Pickard, " [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2565f494-6926-11dd-91bd-0000779fd18c.html Brown faces new by-election battle] ", "Financial Times", 13 August 2008] "The Guardian" describes the constituency's main town, Glenrothes, as a "core area" for the SNP.Severin Carrell, " [http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/14/gordonbrown.snp1 From working class loyalty to new town aspiration] ", "The Guardian", 14 August 2008] The SNP were in second place in the seat in the 2005 General ElectionNigel Morris, " [http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-loses-a-friend-ndash-and-faces-another-daunting-scottish-byelection-894518.html Brown loses a friend – and faces another daunting Scottish by-election] ", "The Independent", 14 August 2008] and won the nearest equivalent seat in the 2007 Scottish Parliament election.

The SNP also run Fife Council, which covers the constituency, in coalition with the Scottish Liberal Democrats. The Scottish Liberal Democrats won the last by-election to be held in Fife from Labour on a swing of 16%.

The Labour Party have claimed that the SNP have been campaigning in Glenrothes ahead of MacDougall's death, but the SNP claim that their local Member of the Scottish Parliament, Tricia Marwick, has simply been working in the area in her elected role.

The seat adjoins that of the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, and it is possible that as a result he will be under pressure to actively campaign in the by-election, something Prime Ministers generally avoid.

Boundaries

The current boundaries centre on Glenrothes itself, moving south and west to include Cardenden, and the extreme western section of Kirkcaldy. The northern and western areas include Leslie, and Markinch. In the east, the seat contains Kennoway and Methil and parts of Leven.

Polling date

There has been speculation about the timing of the by-election. By tradition, the polling date will be decided by Labour, as MacDougall's party. The by-election is set for Thursday, 6 November 2008. cite news|url= http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7655805.stm|title= Glenrothes by-election date set |first=|last= |publisher=BBC News |date=6 October 2008] .

Had the writ been moved immediately the by-election could be held as early as mid-September, although this coincides with the Trades Union Congress annual conference and the following weeks will be filled with various party conferences. A Labour loss during this period could have provided a particular boost for their opponents, or for dissident elements within the party.Iain Watson, " [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7558533.stm Don't expect an early by-election] ", BBC News, 13 August 2008] The SNP may favour a quick by-election, noting that Labour called the Glasgow East by-election rapidly, when commentators believed it was to Labour's advantage.November 6th has been chosen.

Candidates

Several names were put forward as potential Labour candidates. "The Guardian" named two local Labour councillors, Alex Rowley and Christine May,Nicholas Watt and Severin Carrell, " [http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/14/gordonbrown.snp MP's death leaves Brown facing new SNP challenge in neighbouring Fife constituency] ", "The Guardian", 14 August 2008] while "The Scotsman" additionally suggested that Claire Baker, a local MSP, might be in the running. Local newspaper "The Courier" also named councillors Mark Hood and Kay Morrison.Steve Bargeton, " [http://www.thecourier.co.uk/output/2008/08/14/newsstory11804002t0.asp MP's death leaves battle for Brown] ", "The Courier"] Former First Minister Henry McLeish was approached about standing, but ruled himself out. [" [http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/19/glenrothes.scotland1 Former Scottish first minister will not stand in Glenrothes byelection] ", "The Guardian", 19 August 2008] The shortlist, published on 2008-09-01, was of three names: Kirkcaldy High School rector Lindsay Roy; Colin Davidson, a teacher at Bell Baxter High School; and Kezia Dugdale, a popular blogger [ [http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/08/top-40-scottish-blogs.html Top 40 Scottish Blogs] , Ian Dale's Diary, 27 August 2008] and assistant of Labour MSP Lord Foulkes. [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7591769.stm] Roy was ultimately selected as the Labour candidate.

The SNP has selected the leader of Fife Council, Peter Grant. [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7577955.stm SNP reveals by-election candidate] , "BBC News", 22 August 2008] The Conservative Party have selected Maurice Golden [cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7586471.stm | title= Tories pick by-election candidate|date=2008-08-28|accessdate=2008-08-28] while the Liberal Democrats have chosen Harry Wills. The Scottish Socialist Party are standing Morag Balfour, their national co-chair, who lives in the town and has been a candidate in the constituency before. [Simon Johnson, " [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/2613957/John-MacDougall-was-suing-Government-over-disease-that-killed-him.html John MacDougall was suing Government over disease that killed him] ", "Daily Telegraph", 24 August 2008] Solidarity are standing Louise McLeary.

An independent candidate may stand under the banner of "Real Labour for the Black Watch", to highlight the Save the Scottish Regiments campaign, and to embarrass the Labour party at the polls. [cite web|url=http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2441279.0.Regiments_campaign_considers_byelection_challenge.php|title=Regiments campaign considers by-election challenge|job=The Herald|date=2008-09-05|accessdate=2008-09-06]

A significant feature of the by-election is that two of the candidates have disabilities: Morag Balfour is a wheelchair user and Louise McLeary is visually impaired.

2008 by-election

Election box begin
title=Glenrothes by-election, 2008Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish Socialist Party
candidate = Morag Balfour
votes =
percentage =
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
candidate = Maurice Golden
votes =
percentage =
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish National Party
candidate = Peter Grant
votes =
percentage =
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Solidarity (Scotland)
candidate = Louise McLeary
votes =
percentage =
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish Labour Party
candidate = Lindsay Roy
votes =
percentage =
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = United Kingdom Independence Party
candidate = Kris Seunarine
votes =
percentage =
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish Liberal Democrats
candidate = Harry Wills
votes =
percentage =
change = "N/A"

ources

*Scottish National Party [cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7577955.stm|title=SNP reveal by-election candidate, "BBC News"|job=BBC News|date=2008-08-22|accessdate=2008-08-22]
*UK Polling [ [http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/glenrothes Glenrothes] UK Polling]
*UK Independence Party [cite web|url=http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/734-ukips-candidate-to-fight-glenrothes|title=UKIP's candidate to fight Glenrothes|job=UKIP|date=2008-08-25|accessdate=2008-08-25]
*Liberal Democrats [cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7582059.stm|title=Lib Dems pick by-election hopeful|job=BBC News|date=2008=08-26|accessdate=2008-08-26]
*Conservative Party [cite web|url=http://www.scottishconservatives.com/news_press/news/glenrothes_by-election_selection.aspx|title=Glenrothes by-election selection, Scottish Conservatives|date=2008-08-28]
*Labour [cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7591769.stm|title=Labour picks by-election hopeful|job=BBC News|date=2008-09-01|accessdate=2008-09-01]
*Solidarity [cite web|url=http://www.solidarityscotland.org/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,1/|title=Solidarity in Glenrothes|job=Solidarity|date=2008-10-08|accessdate=2008-10-10]

Last election

Election box begin
title=Glenrothes, 5 May 2005Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish Labour Party
candidate = John MacDougall
votes = 19,395
percentage = 51.9
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish National Party
candidate = John Beare
votes = 8,731
percentage = 23.4
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish Liberal Democrats
candidate = Elizabeth Riches
votes = 4,728
percentage = 12.7
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
candidate = Belinda Don
votes = 2,651
percentage = 7.1
change = "N/A"Election box candidate
party = Scottish Pensioners Party
candidate = George Rodger
votes = 716
percentage = 1.9
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = Scottish Socialist Party
candidate = Morag Balfour
votes = 705
percentage = 1.9
change = "N/A"Election box candidate with party link
party = United Kingdom Independence Party
candidate = Paul Smith
votes = 440
percentage = 1.2
change = "N/A"Election box majority
votes = 10,664
percentage = 28.5
change = "N/A"Election box turnout
votes = 37,366
percentage = 56.1
change = "N/A"

References

External links

* [http://gswing.sourceforge.net/scotland Scottish Election Results 1997 - present]