Age wave

In contemporary economics, Harry Dent a Harvard graduate and Fortune 100 consultant, has popularized the baby-boomer age-wave theory [Siegel, Jeremy J. (June 21, 2002). Stocks for the Long Run : The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies, 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388. ISBN 9780071370486.] . According to Dent [Harry S. Dent Jr., The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History, 2004, Simon and Schuster, ISBN 0743222997] , as a result of baby boomers retiring, the US stock-market will peak between 2007 and 2009. This prediction is based on the observation that consumer spending peaks near age 50.

Schieber and Shoven [Schieber, Sylvester J. and Shoven, John B., "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets" . Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=226964] suggest gradual peaking of social security trust fund around 2007-2009.

Some experts [http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSN3131412220080131 Economy faces bigger bust without Boomers, Reuters, Jan 31, 2008 ] expect the worst consumer recession since 1980 to occur when aging boomers start retiring, adding to rising unemployment, decline in house values, and declining stock prices. However other experts have suggested that immigration to the US and rise of emerging economies will offset the demographic impact.

References

ee also

*Recession