Predictable surprise

Predictable surprise

A "Predictable Surprise" describes a situation or circumstance in which avoidable crises are marginalized in order to satisfy economic and social policies.

Definition

Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins define "predictable surprises" as problems that
* at least some people are aware of,
* are getting worse over time, and
* are likely to explode into a crisis eventually but are not prioritized by key decision-makers or have not elicited a response fast enough to prevent severe damage.

Examples of predictable surprises:

* September 11, 2001 attacks
* Iraq War
* Enron scandal
* Subprime mortgage crisis [Watkins, M (2007) [http://www.businessweek.com/managing/content/dec2007/ca20071213_764745.htm BusinessWeek (December 17) Subprime: A Predictable Surprise] ]
* Hurrican Katrina Response [Irons, L (2005) [http://www.hsaj.org/pages/volume1/issue2/pdfs/1.2.7.pdf|Homeland Security Affairs Hurricane Katrina as A Predictable Surprise] ]
* Global Warming [Bazerman, M (2006) Climate change as a predictable surprise."Climatic Change" 77:79-193]
* Roman Catholic sex abuse cases

Citations

References

* M. Bazerman and M. Watkins (2004) Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them. ISBN 1591391784
* B. Tuchman (1984) . ISBN 978-0345308238


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