- Disconfirmed expectancy
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Disconfirmed expectancy is a psychological term for what is commonly known as a failed prophecy. It leads to a form of cognitive dissonance.
Disconfirmed expectancy was illustrated by Leon Festinger in the 1956 book When Prophecy Fails. This book gave an inside account of belief persistence in members of a UFO doomsday cult, and documented the increased proselytization they exhibited after the leader's "end of the world" prophecy failed to come true. The prediction of the Earth's destruction, supposedly sent by aliens to the leader of the group, became a disconfirmed expectancy that caused dissonance between the cognitions, "the world is going to end" and "the world did not end."
Although some members abandoned the group when the prophecy failed, most of the members lessened their dissonance by accepting a new belief: that the planet was spared because of the faith of the group.[1]
- ^ Festinger, L., Riecken, H. W., & Schachter, S. (1956). When prophecy fails. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
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