Great Transition

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Great Transition is a vision created by the Global Scenario Group of how humanity could create a civilization that reflects egalitarian social and ecological values, affirms diversity, and defeats poverty, war, and environmental destruction. [ [http://www.gtinitiative.org Great Transition Initiative] ] The elements of the Great Transition vision are increased human interconnectedness, improved quality of life, and a healthy planet. [ Great Transition Initiative. 2007. [http://www.gtinitiative.org/default.asp?action=34 Why a Great Transition] ]

Background

The term Great Transition was first introduced by the Global scenario group (GSG), an international body of scientists convened in 1995 by the Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute to examine the requirements for a transition to a sustainable global society. The GSG set out to describe and analyze scenarios for the future of the earth as it entered a Planetary Phase of Civilization. The GSG's scenario analysis resulted in a series of reports [ [http://www.gsg.org/gsgpub.html Global Scenario Group publications] ] and its findings were summarized for a non-technical audience in the essay [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf Great Transition: the Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead] .

In this essay, the Global Scenario Group explains that civilization is now in a moment of transition in which “all components of culture will change in the context of a holistic shift in the structure of society and its relation to nature…transforming values and knowledge, demography and social relations, economics and governance, and technology and the environment.” [ Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. Kates, and R. Swart. 2002. [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf Great Transition: the Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead] , p. 54.] Out of the turbulence of transition, very different forms of global society could emerge. The choices we make over this next critical decade could set the trajectory of global development for generations to come. [ Raskin, P. 2006. [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/16WorldLines.pdf World Lines: Pathways, Pivots, and the Global Future] Boston, MA: [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] . ] The Great Transition essay contends that the realization of a Great Transition world depends in part on whether those living today contest the current roles of transnational corporations and state governments (i.e., through the emergence of an authentic global citizens movement). Alternate scenarios lead to varying futures ranging from Breakdown to Policy Reform to Eco-Communalism.

Alternative scenarios

The Global Scenario Group organized its scenarios into three categories: Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transition.

Conventional Worlds are futures that evolve gradually from today’s dominant forces of globalization : economic interdependence deepens, dominant values spread, and developing regions converge toward rich-country patterns of production and consumption. Two variations of Conventional Worlds are Market Forces, a neo-liberal vision in which powerful global actors advance the priority of economic growth, and Policy Reform, in which governments are able to harmonize economic growth with sustainable development objectives, such as the Millennium Development Goals.

The Group believes that if market and policy adaptations are not sufficient to blunt social polarization, environmental degradation, and economic instability, the danger of a deepening global crisis looms. Out of the turbulence some form of Barbarization scenario could emerge. One form this could take is an authoritarian Fortress World scenario, a kind of global apartheid with elites in protected enclaves and an impoverished majority outside. Another is Breakdown, where conflicts and crises spiral out of control, waves of disorder spread across countries and regions, and institutions collapse.

Great Transition scenarios are, in contrast, transformative scenarios. Their defining feature is the ascendancy of a new suite of values – human solidarity, quality of life, and respect for nature. Conventional Worlds scenarios see capitalist values maintained and only market forces and incremental policy reform trying to curb environmental degradation. Barbarization is a set of possible futures in which environmental collapse leads to an overall social collapse. The Great Transition is a pathway that finds humanity changing its relationship with the environment. It has two variants: Eco-Communalism and New Sustainability Paradigm.

Eco-Communalism is the adoption of a lifestyle that turns to non-material dimensions of fulfillment – the quality of life, the quality of human solidarity, and the quality of the earth. It is a highly localist vision favored by some environmental subcultures and is a strong theme within the anti-globalization movement.

New Sustainability Paradigm sees globalization not as a threat to be resisted, but as an opportunity for forging a new category of consciousness – a global citizenship that understands humanity's place in the web of life and its link to the fate of the earth.

The New Sustainability Paradigm endorses many of the ideals of Eco-Communalism with its plea for new human values and empowered communities. It rejects rampant consumerism, seeking improved human well-being through material sufficiency for all. It seeks a world where the quality of human knowledge, creativity, and self-realization – not the quantity of goods and services – signals development. It embraces equality, empowerment, and deep respect for nature. It recognizes plural paths to modernity, and welcomes regional diversity in expressing such values as freedom, equity, democracy, and sustainability. It champions subsidiarity, the principle that decision-making occurs at the most decentralized level possible.

The New Sustainability Paradigm seeks to shape the character of global civilization. It sees the planetary phase of civilization as an opportunity. Rather than retreat into localism, it validates global solidarity, cultural cross-fertilization and economic interdependence.

Global Citizens Movement

The pathways to a Great Transition are uncertain and diverse, but the essay, [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead] , lays out certain clues: governments, limited by nationalist sentiments, are unlikely to lead the way. Transnational corporations are not likely to reinvent themselves. Civil society, although active on the many issues arising during the tumult of transition, is currently too fragmented and small scale to significantly alter the course of global development.

The Global Scenario Group analysis concludes that a Great Transition will not be possible unless larger numbers of an active and aware global citizenry get involved in the struggle for our future. It refers to this as a global citizens movement for a Great Transition. This movement would see itself as constructing a new planetary society rooted in values of quality of life, human solidarity, and environmental sustainability. An authentic global citizens movement would be quite different from the existing fragmented social movements active throughout the world today. These movements tend to be issue-specific – focused on labor, environment, human rights, feminist issues, indigenous struggles, poverty, AIDS, and numerous other interrelated but “siloed” efforts. Without a shared vision for the future, it is difficult to imagine how diverse citizen initiatives could overcome fragmentation and exert influence on the shape of the emerging planetary civilization. [ Kriegman, O. 2006. [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/15Movements.pdf Dawn of the Cosmopolitan: The Hope of a Global Citizens Movement] Boston, MA: [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] ]

Great Transition Initiative

Further development of the Great Transition scenarios, offering visions and pathways to a hopeful future, is carried on by the [http://www.gtinitiative.org/ Great Transition Initiative] (GTI). The GTI is an international effort to advance a great transition to a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet. The GTI elaborates alternative scenarios and disseminates these visions to the general public.

A key insight of this work is that scientific and technological improvements are not sufficient to create a just and sustainable world. Rather, science and technology must be integrally linked with cultural transformation and new values. In this sense, the emerging science of the coupled human-environment system must understand human values as a key feature of the system.

By sharing these visions with citizens, the [http://www.gtinitiative.org/ Great Transition Initiative] attempts to respond to widespread apprehension about the future and inspire action towards a transition. The [http://www.gtinitiative.org/resources/paperseries.html GTI Paper Series] brings this analysis to issues such as climate change, international security, trade, technology, feminism, global governance, transforming corporations, human well-being, and ecosystems.

A Transition Initiative Primer [http://transitionnetwork.org/Primer/TransitionInitiativesPrimer.pdf] is updated frequently and is easy reading for the lay person. A 51 page document, the Primer speaks to the "why" Transition initiatives are necessary, how to setup a Transition Initiative, and gives resources, including movies and further reading.

Notes

References

* Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. Kates, and R. Swart. 2002. [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf The Great Transition: The Promise and the Lure of the Times Ahead] . Boston, MA: [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] .
* Raskin P. 2006 [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/2GTToday.pdf GT Today: A Report from the Future] Boston, MA: [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] .
* Rajan, C. 2006. [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/3Politics.pdf Global Politics and Institutions] Boston, MA: [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] .
* White, A. 2006. [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/5Corporations.pdf Transforming the Corporation] . Boston, MA: [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] .
* Stutz, J. 2006 [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/10WellBeing.pdf The Role of Well-Being in a Great Transition] Boston, MA: [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] .
* Revkin, A. C. 2002. [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/09/0904_020904_wirimpact_2.html Human Impact on the Earth – How Do We Soften It?] International Herald Tribune and National Georaphic
* Parris, T. M. 2002. [http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1076/is_7_44/ai_90702212 A crystal ball for sustainability - Bytes of Note] EnvironmentPeterson G. 2007. [http://rs.resalliance.org/2007/01/16/great-transition-papers/ Great Transition Papers] . Resilience Science

External links

* [http://www.GTinitiative.org Great Transition Initiative]
* [http://www.gsg.org Global Scenario Group]
* [http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute]
* [http://www.earthsky.org/blog/50773/what-future-will-we-choose What Future Will We Choose?] – an article and discussion on Earth & Sky about the Great Transition.
* [http://envirovaluation.org/index.php/2007/01/13/the_tellus_insitute_and_the_global_trans Environmental Valuation and Cost Benefit News] – short announcement about the Great Transition papers
* [http://plausible.custompublish.com/index.php?cat=6691 Plausible Futures Newsletter 2002] – brief synopsis of Great Transition report