People v. Collins

People v. Collins

"The People of the State of California v. Collins" ["People v. Collins", 438 P. 2d 33 (68 Cal. 2d 319 1968) Click here to understand what these numbers mean] was a 1968 jury trial in California, USA that made notorious forensic use of mathematics and probability.

Trial at first instance

Bystanders to a robbery in Los Angeles testified that the perpetrators had been a black male, with a beard and moustache, and a caucasian female with blonde hair tied in a ponytail. They had escaped in a yellow motor car.

After testimony from an "instructor in mathematics" about the multiplication rule for probability, the prosecutor invited the jury to consider the probability that the accused pair, who fitted the description of the witnesses, were not the robbers. Even though the "instructor" had not discussed conditional probability, the prosecutor suggested that the jury would be safe in estimating:

The jury returned a verdict of guilty.

Appeal

The Supreme Court of California set aside the conviction, criticising the statistical reasoning and disallowing the way the decision was put to the jury. In their judgement, the justices observed that mathematics:

:"... while assisting the trier of fact in the search of truth, must not cast a spell over him."

Discussion

The statistical reasoning at first instance was criticised as it failed to take into account the probable dependencies between the characteristics, for example, bearded men commonly sport moustaches.

It has also been criticised as an example of the prosecutor's fallacy. [Finkelstein, M. O. & Fairley, W. B. (1970) "A bayesian approach to identification evidence" 83 "Harvard Law Review" p498] [Kreith, K. (1976) "Mathematics, Social Decisions and the Law", "International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology" vol.7 p315]

However, the original decision has been supported by some writers. [Tribe, L. H. (1971) "Trial by mathematics" 84 "Harvard Law Review" p1839]

References

External links

* [http://www.law.harvard.edu/publications/evidenceiii/cases/people.htm Text of the Supreme Court decision, scathing the reasoning of the first instance]


Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.

Игры ⚽ Поможем решить контрольную работу

Look at other dictionaries:

  • People v. Collins — The People of the State of California v. Collins (Volk von Kalifornien gegen Collins) war ein Geschworenenurteil aus dem Jahre 1968, welches auf berühmte Art und Weise Gebrauch (und Missbrauch) der Statistik betrieb. Malcolm Ricardo Collins und… …   Deutsch Wikipedia

  • Collins — may refer to: General Collins class submarine Tom Collins, a gin cocktail, and the Collins glass in which it is traditionally served People Surname Collins (surname) Given name Collins Injera (born 1986), Kenyan rugby player Collins John (born… …   Wikipedia

  • Collins Block — – Aspen Lumber and Supply U.S. National Register of Historic Places …   Wikipedia

  • Collins (surname) — The surname Collins has a variety of likely origins in Britain and Ireland: Anglo Saxon: A patronymic surname based on the name Colin, an English diminutive form of Nicholas. In England, Collins usually signified son of Colin. Irish: cuilein =… …   Wikipedia

  • Collins Center for the Arts — The Collins Center for the Arts, formerly the Maine Center for the Arts (MCA), is a performing arts center and concert hall located on the campus of the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, USA. It has been operating since 1986, hosting both… …   Wikipedia

  • Collins John — Personal information Full name Collins John Date of birth 17 October 1985 (198 …   Wikipedia

  • Collins, Mississippi —   Collins, Mississippi   City   …   Wikipedia

  • Collins, Iowa —   City   Location of Collins, Iowa …   Wikipedia

  • Collins E. Ijoma — Collins Ijoma at a National Association for Court Management meeting Collins E. Ijoma was the first Nigerian and youngest person to obtain the position of Trial Court Administrator in the United States. Early life Ijoma was born in Imo State,… …   Wikipedia

  • Collins Street, Melbourne — Collins Street Looking down Collins Street from Southern Cross Station Length: 2 km (1 mi) Location: Melbourne C …   Wikipedia

Share the article and excerpts

Direct link
Do a right-click on the link above
and select “Copy Link”