57th New Brunswick general election

The 57th New Brunswick general election is expected to be held on September 27 2010. The election will return members to the Legislative Assembly in the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

The Lieutenant-Governor of New Brunswick would have originally been able to call an election earlier or as late as 2011, however a bill in the 56th Legislature has fixed election dates on the fourth Monday of September every four years beginning with this election.ref|Bill75 An election could still be called earlier in the event of a vote of no confidence. The incumbent Liberal government will seek a second term in office and will hope to win the popular vote as in the previously election, the Liberals won in terms of seats but lost the popular vote the Conservatives.

Target Ridings

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 10 seats in which they came closest to winning from the Conservatives, while under the Conservative column are the 10 seats in which they came closest to winning from the Liberals. Listed is the name of the riding, and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2006 election.

Up to 10 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%. No party or independent candidate, other than the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives, came within 15% of winning any seats.

* Indicates incumbent not running again.

The ridings of Moncton East, Moncton West and Petitcodiac are also likely to be targeted by the Conservatives as all have switched to the Liberals since the election. Moncton East was carried by the Liberals in a by-election while the MLAs for Moncton West and Petitcodiac crossed the floor from the PCs to the Liberals.

Timeline

*October 10 2006 - Organizers for the Green Party of Canada in New Brunswick announce plans to form a provincial Green Party in time to field a full slate of candidates in this election. [http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2006/10/10/nb-greens.html]
*November 5 2006 - Allison Brewer resigns as leader of the New Democratic Party. She will be replaced on an interim basis by Pat Hanratty and permanently upon the election of a new leader in late 2007.
*December 12 2006 - An opinion poll conducted November 10 to December 7 by Corporate Research Associates showed the Liberals enjoying an unprecedented lead in opinion polls, standing at 65% in contrast to 27% for the Progressive Conservatives, 6% for the New Democrats and 2% for the Greens.ref|TJ-Dec1206
*December 13 2007 - Bernard Lord resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives and announces he will resign his seat in the legislature on January 31 2007. [http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/061213/national/nb_lord_resignation_3]
*March 5 2007 - Liberal Chris Collins wins Lord's former seat in Moncton East changing the standings in the legislature to 30 Liberals, 25 Progressive Conservatives.
*April 17 2007 - Progressive Conservatives Joan MacAlpine-Stiles and Wally Stiles cross the floor and join the Liberals changing the standings in the legislature to Liberals 32, Progressive Conservatives 23.
*May 29 2007 - Government House Leader Stuart Jamieson tables Bill 75 which would fix election dates on the fourth Monday of September every four years beginning with September 27 2010. ref|Bill75
*October 13 2007 - The NDP elect Roger Duguay as their new leader.
* May 17 2008 - The Green Party of New Brunswick is formed. Mike Milligan is elected as the interim leader of the party until a convention can be held in the fall.

ources

* "Bill 75 - An Act to Amend the Legislative Assembly Act" [http://www1.gnb.ca/legis/bill/editform-e.asp?ID=555&legi=56&num=1]
* Carl Davies, "Grit popularity soars", New Brusnwick Telegraph-Journal, page A1, December 12, 2006