Arizona's 8th congressional district election, 2006

The Arizona 8th congressional district election, 2006 was an election for the United States House of Representatives for the open seat of incumbent Jim Kolbe (R), who was not running for re-election. The primary was held on September 12, 2006, and the two major party winners were Republican Randy Graf, a former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for the GOP nomination in 2004, and former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords. Libertarian Dave Nolan, who was uncontested in the primary, was also in the November 7, 2006 general election. Graf was considered too conservative for the district: Kolbe withheld his endoresement, and towards the end of the election the National GOP pulled their support. By election time, most non-partisan analyses considered this race the most likely district to switch hands, which it did, as Giffords won a decisive victory, 54% to 42%.

Candidates

Republican

* Randy Graf, former professional golfer and former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for their party's nomination in 2004, and has been running for the 2006 ever since.

Democratic

*Gabrielle Giffords, former State Senator who resigned from the Arizona Legislature on December 1, 2005 in preparation for her Congressional campaign

Libertarian

*David Nolan, small business owner, former media personality, and principal founder of the Libertarian Party, entered the race in June 2006.

Independent

*Jay Quick, a Tucson businessman, was on the general election ballot as an Independent.

Write-In

*Russ Dover, an immigration activist.
*Leo Kimminau
*Paul Price

Primary campaign

Republican

Incumbent Jim Kolbe (R) announced on November 23, 2005 that he would not seek re-election in 2006 [http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=1341353] . The district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs of Tucson, is Republican-leaning, but competitive: President Bush won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Also, the fact that it has been electing Kolbe, an openly gay Republican, for two decades, often by wide margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a socially conservative stronghold.

Randy Graf, the primary winner, left a leadership position in the state House in 2004 to challenge Kolbe in the Republican primary. Graf won 40 percent of the vote and has campaigned almost full time since.cite news | url=http://www.azcentral.com/news/0913elex-cdeight0913-ON.html | date=September 13, 2006 | title=Giffords, Graf win in 8th Congressional District | author=Jon Kamman | publisher=The Arizona Republic] . A supporter of the Minuteman Project, Graf campaigned on a pledge to ensure that illegal immigrants have no path to citizenship and that the border will be further secured. cite news | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/us/politics/11arizona.html | title=In Cost and Vitriol, Race in Arizona Draws Notice | publisher=New York Times | date=September 11, 2006 | author= Randal Archibold] Graf previously sponsored a bill (which did not pass) to allow patrons carry guns into bars and restaurants.

The GOP establishment, however, considered Graf as too conservative for a district that leans Republican but gave President Bush a very modest 53 percent of its votes in 2004, and tried to rally moderates around a former Kolbe campaign manager, Steve Huffman. cite news | title=Conservative Graf Scores Win Over Moderate in Arizona’s 8th |author=Marie Horrigan | date= September 13, 2006 | url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/09/conservative_graf_scores_win_o.html | publisher=CQPolitics.com] . Unfortunately for Huffman, another moderate candidate, former state Republican Party Chairman Mike Hellon, was also running, and they split the moderate vote.

Huffman got a boost when the national GOP took the rare step of endorsing and supporting Huffman, putting $250,000 into the race. The other GOP candidates criticized the move as unfair. In the meantime, the national Democratic party jumped in and spent nearly $200,000, a large part of that for advertisements critical of Huffman in an effort to help Graf's candidacy.

But then other troubles developed. As CQPolitics described: "There were allegations that his campaign treasurer, local real estate broker William Arnold, had stalked Hellon’s ex-wife, state Sen. Toni Hellon. Arnold quit as treasurer after Hellon obtained a restraining order against him, and Huffman’s campaign said it had no involvement in Arnold’s actions. But the flap shadowing Huffman expanded in the final days of campaigning when it was discovered the owner of the Web site used to post pictures of Toni Hellon also owned Huffman’s campaign site. The alternative "Tucson Weekly" withdrew its support of Huffman based on the emerging evidence and the campaign’s refusal to answer any question regarding the incident."

Democratic

The Democratic campaign was mild in comparison to the GOP campaign.

Gabrielle Giffords, who was former State Senator, resigned from the Arizona Legislature just eight days after Kolbe's announcement, in order to run for his seat. She quickly established herself as the front-runner, largely on the basis of her legislative record. She also gained some beneficial publicity when it was revealed that she is engaged to a space shuttle astronaut. . Her only serious competition was longtime Tucson television newscaster Patty Weiss.

Election results

GOP

Total 64,076 votes cast [ [http://www.azsos.gov/election/2006/Primary/Canvass2006PE.pdf State of Arizona Official Canvass] , 2006 Primary Election, September 12, 2006]

Results

Total 211,023 votes cast [ [http://projects.washingtonpost.com/elections/keyraces/3/] U.S. House, Arizona District 8 (Open) ]

Election box candidate with party link
party = Democratic Party (US)
candidate = Gabrielle Giffords
votes = 114,263
percentage = 54%
change = Election box candidate with party link
party = Republican Party (US)
candidate = Randy Graf
votes = 89,104
percentage = 42%
change = Election box candidate with party link
party = Libertarian Party (US)
candidate = David Nolan
votes = 4,007
percentage = 2%
change = Election box candidate
party = Independent
candidate = Jay Quick
votes = 3,649
percentage = 2%
change =Election box gain with party link
winner = Democratic Party (US)
loser = Republican Party (US)
swing =

References

External links

* [http://www.giffordsforcongress.com/ Giffords campaign website]
* [http://www.votegraf.com/ Graf campaign site]
* [http://www.nolan2006.org/ Nolan campaign site]