Hoyle's fallacy

Named for the astrophysicist Sir Fred Hoyle, Hoyle's fallacy refers to a specific and common misrepresentation of evolutionary theory. [http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/abioprob.html Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations] - An explanation at the TalkOrigins Archive by Ian Musgrave Last Update: December 21, 1998]

Hoyle's formulation concerns the probability that a protein molecule could achieve a functional sequence of amino acids by chance alone. He calculates this as being of approximately the same order of magnitude as the probability that a hurricane could sweep through a junkyard and randomly assemble a Boeing 747.

Hoyle's Fallacy is a mainstay of creationist, intelligent design, orthogenetic and other anti-Darwinian criticisms of evolution. The reason why it is a fallacy has been explained at length by Richard Dawkins, principally in his two books "The Blind Watchmaker" and "Climbing Mount Improbable". He has expanded the argument in "The God Delusion", calling it the Ultimate Boeing 747 gambit.

As Ian Musgrave explains in "Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations":quote|These people, including Fred, have committed one or more of the following errors.
#They calculate the probability of the formation of a "modern" protein, or even a complete bacterium with all "modern" proteins, by random events. This is not the abiogenesis theory at all.
#They assume that there is a fixed number of proteins, with fixed sequences for each protein, that are required for life.
#They calculate the probability of sequential trials, rather than simultaneous trials.
#They misunderstand what is meant by a probability calculation.
#They seriously underestimate the number of functional enzymes/ribozymes present in a group of random sequences.

ee also

*Objections to evolution

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