Images of the future

Images of the future are one of the main resources used in the field of Futures Studies, as a subject of analysis, as well as a site for the active development and pursuit of preferred future scenarios. For example, according to Jim Dator, a futurist and Professor of Political Science at the University of Hawaii at Manoa: "one of the things futures studies tries to do is to help people examine and clarify their images of the future--their ideas, fears, hopes, beliefs, concerns about the future--so that they might improve the quality of their decisions which impact it." The term 'image' in this context includes much more than purely visual depictions of the future.

The Image of the Future, a major two-volume work by the late Dutch sociologist and futurist Fred Polak, introduced the idea that images of the future could be an important subject when considering the historical process. In that book he argued that the images which a society drew upon would affect the future direction that society would take. Kenneth Boulding, and his wife Elise Boulding, who translated Polak's book into English, are credited with making 'images of the future' central to Futures Studies, particularly with the development of techniques for futures visioning workshops.

Harold D. Lasswell, the American political scientist, went beyond Polak to describe how society creates images of the future, or "developmental constructs" that express expectations about the future, related to past trends. In this view, images of the future are anticipatory end points in a continuum of social change, that give aspirational leverage to the social sciences (Bell & Mau, 1971).

Beach and Mitchell (1987) consider Image Theory as a descriptive decision making theory, in which decision makers represent information as images or schema. The "projected image" consists of various expected future states that could result from the attainment of goals. The "trajectory image" consists of strategic blueprints or intermediate goals needed to reach the projected image. The "action-image" consists of plans the decision maker intends to carry out to reach the trajectory. The "self-image" are those guiding principles and values that decision-makers use to decide between various alternatives.

References

* Beach, L.R., & Mitchell, T.R. (1987, December). Image theory: Principles, goals and plans in decision. "Acta Psychologica, 66"(3), 201-220.
* Bell, W., & Mau, J.A. (1971). Images of the future: Theory and research strategy, In "The sociology of the future: Theory, cases, and annotated bibliography", pp. 6-44. New York: Russell Sage.
* Polak, F. L., (1973). The Image of the Future (translated from the Dutch and abridged by Elise Boulding), New York: Elsevier.

See also:
Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic science fiction

External links: This is an annotated list of audio-visual materials which may be used as a basis for imaginative as well as informed discussion about possible futures:

'The Catalogue' - One artist's depiction of a possible future for visual based surveillance and tagging: http://www.chrisoakley.com/the_catalogue.html

'EPIC 2014' - A 'future history of the media': http://www.robinsloan.com/epic/

'The Future of Augmented Cognition' - A short film depicting a scenario set in 2030, in which augmented cognition (AugCog) offers powerful ways to handle information-intensive environments: http://www.augmentedcognition.org/video.htm

'Aloha Tonight investigates Nintendog' - A short film made in 2007, in the style of a news magazine set in 2014, produced by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. It explores some possible consequences of the increasing sophistication of video gaming: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWxNP6aev8Q

'Neural rights management' - A short film made in 2007 by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies in the style of an advertisement, suggesting a not too distant future in which experience itself could be regulated on a user-pays basis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNf2AByp5Mg