Probabilistic Prognosis

= Probalistic Prognosis =

Probabilistic prognosis means the anticipation of future events based on a probabilistic structure of past experiences of individual and present situations. Past experiences and present situations help to create hypothesis about the forthcoming future and attributes certain probabilities to them. According to probabilistic prognosis, the preparation of an individual occurs to corresponding actions.

This ability is the result of biological evolution in a probabilistically organized environment. The prognosis of living creatures optimizes the results of their actions, and therefore they are adequate, exactly to those variable characteristics of environment on which the success of action –satisfaction of needs, achieving goals, depends on.

Under some pathological conditions, such as schizophrenia, local damage of the brain, the probabilistic prognosis mechanism can be disturbed. The theory of probabilistic prognosis originated as a continuation of Nikolay Berntein’s ideas stated in his work “Essays of the Physiology of Movement and Physiology of Activity” (1966)A new direction of studies of probabilistic prognosis started with works of Professor J.Feigenberg(1969), Professor M.Tsiskaridze (1969), and Preofessor V.Ivannikov(1971), and later were widely explored by other scientists. Studies of probabilistic prognosis remain topical until now and have many followers.

Sources

“Essays of the Physiology of Movement and Physiology of Activity” (1966) Nikolay BernteinProfessor J.Feigenberg(1969) Professor M.Tsiskaridze (1969)Preofessor V.Ivannikov(1971)