Foresight (futures studies)

In futures studies, especially in Europe, the term "foresight" has become common as of 2005, embracing activities of

* critical thinking concerning long-term developments,
* debate and effort to create wider participation in decisions,
* shaping the future, especially by influencing public policy and strategic decisions (European Commission Foresight Website 2005; FOREN project; FORERA [http://forera.jrc.es/index.html] ). It is used for strategic activities in the public as well as the private sector, and underlines the need to link any future-oriented activity or project to action today in order to make an impact (“shaping the future”).

In the last decade, scenario methods, for example, have become widely used in some European countries in policy-making (van Steenbergen 2005). the FORSOCIETY network [http://www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSociety/index.html] brings together national Foresight teams from most European countries, and the European Foresight Monitoring Project [http://www.efmn.info/index.shtml?s=560FF9CB-7D7224212830-641C] is collating material on Foresight activities around the world. In addition, foresight methods are being used more and more in regional planning and decision –making (“regional foresight”). At the same time, the use of foresight for companies (“corporate foresight”) is becoming more professional and widespread (Ratcliffe 2005, Neef/Daheim 2005). It is not only used in strategy development, but also increasingly in innovation development as well as marketing and generally in R&D.

Foresight differs from much futures research and strategic planning. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as:

• futures (forecasting, forward thinking, prospectives),

• planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and

• networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations.

Much futures research has been rather ivory tower work, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the "usual suspects" and gather widely distributed intelligence. These three lines of work were already common in Francophone futures studies going by the name "la prospective". But in the 1990s we began to see what became an explosion of systematic organisation of these methods in large scale TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT programmes in Europe and more widely. Foresight thus draws on traditions of work in long-range planning and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, and participatory futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, science and technology policy, and analysis of "critical technologies".

Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with:

• The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away(though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a few decades out (though where decisions like aircraft design, power station construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the planning horizon may well be half a century).

• Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios, aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of Foresight work, with the decision about what fuure to build being left to other mechanisms.

Foresight [http://www.emeraldinsight.com/info/journals/fs/fs.jsp] is also the name of a journal active in this field; and the term is used in the name of the International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy [http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=78] . The latter journal has played a useful role in documenting activity in Foresight programmes that was previously recorded in a wide variety of locations.

ee also

*Forecasting
*Optimism bias
*Reference class forecasting
*Strategic foresight
*Technology forecasting

References

*van Steenbergen, Bart: Scenarios As a Powerful Tool for Public Policy. As presented at the Prague Workshop on Futures Studies Methodology, October 2005, http://ceses.cuni.cz/english/051019.php. To be published in the proceedings.
*Ratcliffe, John: Challenges for Corporate Foresight: Towards Strategic Prospective Through Scenario Thinking (presented at the conference “Foresight Management in Corporations and Public Organizations”, http://www.tukkk.fi/tutu/conference2005, Helsinki 2005).
*Rohrbeck, Rene & Gemuenden, H.G. (2008) [http://www.rene-rohrbeck.de/documents/Rohrbeck_Gemuenden_(2008)_Strategic-Foresight-in-Multinational-Enterprises_Paper.pdf Strategic Foresight in Multinational Companies: Building a Best-Practice Framework from Case Studies] , R&D Management Conference 2008 "Emerging methods in R&D management": Ottawa, Canada.
*Neef, Andreas; Daheim, Cornelia: Corporate Foresight: The European Experience. In: Foresight, Innovation, and Strategy. Toward a Wiser Future. Ed. By Cynthia G. Wagner. Bethesda 2005, p. 223-241

External links

* [http://euroSF.org European Conference on Strategic Foresight] Annual forum of Strategic Foresight professionals providing a benchmarking of corporate foresight practices
* UNIDO [http://www.unido.org/foresight Foresight Programme] includes [http://www.unido.org/foresight/2007 Training programme] , global forum events like [http://www.unido.org/foresight/summit/2007 TF Summit 2007] and other useful information
* [http://www.unido.org/data/forms.cfm?formcode=TF-MANUAL-REG Manual on Technology Foresight] developed by the Investment and Technology Promotion Branch of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)
* [http://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htm The FORLEARN Online Guide] developed by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission
*Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (versions for each EU15 country except Luxembourg) [http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/CGRF.pdf]
*The European Foresight Monitoring Network [http://www.efmn.eu (EFMN)] , developed to monitor past and ongoing foresight activities and disseminate the information to the foresight community
* [http://www.eurofound.eu.int/transversal/foresight.htm] Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight published by the European Foundation, Dublin
* [http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/home.html The European Commission’s homepage on Science and Technology foresight] , offering definitions as well as an overview of foresight activities supported by the EC.
* [http://www.regional-foresight.de Regional Foresight website] , documenting the work of expert groups and two conferences on the subject
* [http://www.foresight.gov.uk/ The UK Foresight programme] is managed by the Office of Science and Technology. It brings together key people, knowledge and ideas to envisage future society and technology.
* [http://forera.jrc.es/fta/programme.html Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making, September 2006] , includes presentations
* [http://www.jrc.es/home/foresight_seminar/introduction.htm EU-US Scientific Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, May 2004] , includes presentations
* [http://www.mbs.ac.uk/research/engineering-policy/research-projects/foresight-studies.htm] PREST's page of Foresight publications and training
* [http://www.inthelongrun.de International Conference on Long-Term Thinking in Business: Corporate Foresight and Global Change] , October 2004. Includes presentations by corporations like Shell, Deutsche Telekom, BASF, Siemens etc.
* [http://www.tukkk.fi/tutu/conference2005 Conference “Foresight Management in Corporations and Public Organizations”] , 2005, presentations offered for download
* [http://www.clubofamsterdam.com/summit2006.htm “Summit for the Future on Risk”] , Club of Amsterdam, May 2006
* [http://scenariothinking.org Public Scenarios developed issues from healthcare and banking, aviation] founded by the [http://www.dtn.net the DTN]
* [http://www.foresightstyles.com Foresight Styles Assessment] has grown out of the knowledge that we are always bombarded by change
* [http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/amrwpaper/398.htm Research article that describes how Foresight could be integrated into capital budgeting with intelligent agents and fuzzy logic]
* [http://www.2008forecast.com 2008Forecast]

[Category:Futurology]