Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2012

Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2012
Next Ukrainian parliamentary election
Ukraine
2007 ←
All 450 seats to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
226 seats are needed for a majority
Ukraine

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view · Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament) set the election date for the next Ukrainian parliamentary election on October 28, 2012.[1][2][3][4][5]

Contents

Political crises and canceled snap elections

On October 8, 2008 Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko tried to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called an early parliamentary elections in Ukraine for the second time in as many years[6][7] for December 7, 2008.[8][9][10][11] The right of the President to dismiss the parliament was challenged in Ukraine's Constitutional Court. The President's decree has since lapsed as it was never put into action[12] (the coalition supporting the second Tymoshenko Government was extended) and appeals to Ukraine's Constitutional Court were withdrawn. Nevertheless a snap election was predicted by Ukrainian politicians during the 2010 presidential election and after the dismissal of the second Tymoshenko Government.[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27]

2012 election date set

On February 1, 2011 the Verkhovna Rada set the election date for October 28, 2012.[1][2][3][28] Several deputies whose votes were registered that day have stated they could not have taken part in voting because they were not in Kiev (where the Verkhovna Rada building is located) on February 1, 2011.[28][29] Voting for other deputies in the Verkhovna Rada is prohibited by law.[28]

Costs

One of the arguments against holding early elections are the costs.[30] Early elections were estimated to cost approximately UAH₴417 million[31] (about EUR€60 million or US$80 million).[32] Ukrainian experts estimate that a small political party who wants to win seats in parliament will spend up to US$30 million on the campaign and large political parties will spend up to $100 million.[33] Political analyst Pavlo Bulhak says that a party's election budget will be spent on advertising on television, bribing voters, organizing rallies and party propaganda.[33]

Public opinion polls

National Sociological research centers
  • Center of Sociological Studies "Sofiya" (Sofiya) (website)
  • Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) (website)
  • Razumkov Centre
  • Research & Branding Group (R&B)
  • Center of Sociological and Political Studies (SOCIS)
  • Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF) (website)
  • National Institute of Strategic Studies (NISS) (webiste)
  • Sociological group "RATING" (Rating)
Foreign Sociological research centers
  • Russia Fund of Public Opinion (FOM-Ukraine)
  • Germany Society for Consumer Research (GfK)
Party:  % 2007
election
[34]
FOM-Ukraine
(May 2009)[35]
KIIS
(March 2010)[36]
Rating
(late 2010)[37]
Rating
(Sept 2011)[38]
PoR 34.37 24.7 36.4 30.0 21.9
BYuT 30.71 15.8 13.6 19.6 18.9
OU-PSD 14.15 <1 1.4 0,8
CPU 5.39 4 3.1 4.8 5.7
LB 3.96 2.7 1.3 0.7 1.6
SPU 2.86* 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.8
FfC dnp** 8.4 4.3 7.2 11
Svoboda 0.76 2.6 1.6 6.2 4.2
SU Part of LB 7.3 6.4 Part of PoR
UDAR dnp 1 2.7 5.4
Against all 26.89 6.3 7.4 10.7
Not going to vote - 8.4
Unsure - 10.2 13.4 11.3
* Political parties or election blocs need to collect at least 3% of the national vote for all parties in order to gain seats in parliament.
**"dnp" stands for "did not participate".

Election time line

After the dissolution of the current parliament the following dates will be set out by the Central Election Commission of Ukraine (CVK)[39]

  • A deadline for the nomination of candidates for national deputies
  • A period for the registration of parties and electoral blocs with the Central Election Commission
  • The date for the Parliamentary Elections
  • The date for the preliminary announcement of election results
  • The date for the official final announcement of election results

The Venice Commission's proposal

In June, 2011 the Venice Commission reviewed a proposed Draft Law on the election of Ukrainian members of Parliament.[40] The proposal sought to re-instate a mixed-member proportional representation system (used in the 1998 and 2002 elections)[41] with the establishment of 255 local single-member districts elected by a first-past-the-post electoral system (highest vote wins); and the remaining 255 parliamentary seats being elected nationwide on a proportional party-list system[40] with a 5% support threshold; and excluding political blocs from all elections.[42] The option "Vote against all" was also made defunct in the proposal.[42][43] The opposition and Ukrainian analysts accused the Party of Regions of "rewriting the law so that the president could secure a majority in the next Verkhovna Rada."[43][44] In October 2011 the Venice Commission recommended Ukraine should not return to a mixed election system.[45]

Registered parties and blocs

In August 2011 the Strong Ukraine and People's Party, both elected into parliament in 2007, announced that both will merge with Party of Regions.[46][47] The next month Batkivschyna leader and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko called for the opposition to run the elections on a single-party ticket.[48]

References and footnotes

  1. ^ a b Parliament mulls Feb. 3 vote to amend Constitution, Kyiv Post (January 31, 2011)
  2. ^ a b Parliament sets parliamentary elections for October 2012, presidential elections for March 2015, Kyiv Post (February 1, 2011)
  3. ^ a b Ukraine sets parliamentary vote for October 2012, Kyiv Post (February 1, 2011)
  4. ^ Update: Ukraine court rules Yanukovych coalition legal, Kyiv Post (April 8, 2010)
  5. ^ Early parliamentary elections may take place in May - Ukraine's Yanukovych, RIA Novosti (January 25, 2010)
  6. ^ Ukraine president sets parliament election for Dec 7 Reuters
  7. ^ Ukraine's president sets date for new election Associated Press
  8. ^ "Ukraine president calls election for December". Irish Times. 9 October 2008. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/1009/breaking12.htm. Retrieved 9 October 2008. 
  9. ^ "Ukraine election date is uncertain, says president". UNIAN. 22 October 2008. http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news-280065.html. 
  10. ^ "Yuschenko To Choose Date For Early Rada Elections After Financing Is Allocated". Ukrainian News Agency. 22 October 2008. http://www.ukranews.com/eng/article/157480.html. 
  11. ^ "Ukraine president postpones elections due to financial crisis". AFP. 21 October 2008. http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iosNEc3C4oSuNSi_e1COuQQcw0bA. 
  12. ^ Ukraine timeline, BBC News
  13. ^ Yuschenko vows to dissolve parliament if his draft of constitution not passed, Interfax-Ukraine (November 23, 2009)
  14. ^ Opposition leader promises new parliamentary election in March, if elected, Kyiv Post (December 9, 2009)
  15. ^ Yanukovych won't nominate Tymoshenko for prime minister if elected president, Kyiv Post (December 9, 2009)
  16. ^ Tymoshenko: Early parliamentary elections may follow presidential ballot in Ukraine, Kyiv Post (November 26, 2009)
  17. ^ "Snap parliamentary poll untimely – Yushchenko". UNIAN. December 19, 2008. http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news-290990.html. 
  18. ^ Yuschenko says parliament should be dissolved and premier dismissed, Kyiv Post (December 23, 2009)
  19. ^ Yanukovych to call vote if coalition ruled illegal, Kyiv Post (March 1, 2010)
  20. ^ Key Ukrainian politician Arseniy Yatsenyuk declines premiership, RIA Novosti (March 9, 2010)
  21. ^ Update: Ukraine court rules Yanukovych coalition legal, Kyiv Post (April 8, 2010)
  22. ^ Election to Rada to take place in March 2011 if 2004 political reform canceled, Kyiv Post (July 8, 2010)
  23. ^ Update: Return to 1996 Constitution strengthens president, raises legal questions, Kyiv Post (October 1, 2010)
  24. ^ Election official: Parliamentary poll should be held in March 2011, Kyiv Post (October 13, 2010)
  25. ^ Election Commission fails to decide on start of parliamentary election campaign (VIDEO), Kyiv Post (November 22, 2010)
  26. ^ Deputies agree to extend term in office, Kyiv Post (November 19, 2010)
  27. ^ Update: Court extends parliament term by a year, Kyiv Post (November 22, 2010)
  28. ^ a b c (Ukrainian) Янукович отримав контрольний пакет у парламенті, Ukrayinska Pravda (February 2, 2011)
  29. ^ Tymoshenko faction deputy denies voting to extend parliament term, Kyiv Post (February 2, 2011)
  30. ^ "Yulia Tymoshenko: There is no money in the reserve fund for elections". Personal web site of Yulia Tymoshenko. 14 October 2008. http://www.tymoshenko.com.ua/eng/news/first/6407/. 
  31. ^ "Cabinet endorses amendments to budget to fund early elections to Rada". Interfax-Ukraine. 17 October 2008. http://www.interfax.com.ua/en/news/main-news/176875/. 
  32. ^ Rabobank valutaconverter October 17, 2008
  33. ^ a b "Experts Estimate Costs Of Party's Or Bloc's Campaign In Snap Rada Elections At USD 25-100 Million". Ukrainian News Agency. 22 October 2008. http://www.ukranews.com/eng/article/157497.html. 
  34. ^ Source: Central Election Commission of Ukraine
  35. ^ Party of Regions remains leader of electoral sympathies in Ukraine – poll, UNIAN (June 2, 2009)
  36. ^ Party Of Regions, Tymoshenko bloc, Strong Ukraine, Front for Change and Communist Party would get into parliament, Kyiv Post (April 12, 2010
  37. ^ lectoral moods of the Ukrainian population: December 2010
  38. ^ Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: September 2011
  39. ^ Calendar plan 2008, Central Election Commission of Ukraine
  40. ^ a b Draft Law on the election of members of Parliament of Ukraine, Venice Commission (June 28,2011)
  41. ^ Against All Odds: Aiding Political Parties in Georgia and Ukraine (UvA Proefschriften) by Max Bader, Vossiuspers UvA, 2010, ISBN-10:9056296310 (page 93)
  42. ^ a b People First: The latest in the watch on Ukrainian democracy, Kyiv Post (June 24, 2011)
  43. ^ a b Experts: Proposed election law casts cloud over next year’s parliamentary contest, Kyiv Post (October 3, 2011)
  44. ^ Opposition pushes for immediate meeting with Yanukovych, Kyiv Post (September 22, 2011)
  45. ^ Venice Commission advises Ukraine against returning to mixed electoral system, Interfax-Ukraine (October 4, 2011)
  46. ^ Azarov: We welcome other parties joining Regions Party, Kyiv Post (August 23, 2011)
  47. ^ Azarov: Regions Party teams up with Strong Ukraine, Kyiv Post (August 16, 2011)
  48. ^ Tymoshenko: Opposition should participate in parliamentary elections on single party ticket, Kyiv Post (September 27, 2011)

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