McIntyre Final Eight System

The McIntyre Final Eight System was devised by Ken McIntyre in addition to the McIntyre Four, Five and Six systems. It is a playoff system of the top 8 finishers in a competition to determine which two teams will play in the Grand Final. The teams play each other over three weeks, with two teams eliminated each week. Teams who finish in a higher position in the competition are given an easier route to the Grand Final.

It is currently the finals series system used by the National Rugby League (since 1999) and was used by the Australian Football League from 1994 to 1999. From the 2000 season the AFL replaced it with another top 8 system - similar to the one abandoned by the Australian Rugby League in 1996 when they moved to a top 7 and later a top 10 system.^[1]

How it Works

Week 1

• 4th Qualifying Final: 1st vs 8th
• 3rd Qualifying Final: 2nd vs 7th
• 2nd Qualifying Final: 3rd vs 6th
• 1st Qualifying Final: 4th vs 5th

The organisation of the rest of the finals series is dependent upon whether teams won or lost in week 1 and their final ranking on the ladder before the finals. The two lowest ranked losers are eliminated from the finals, whilst the two highest ranked winners progress straight to Week 3.

Week 2

• 1st Semi Final: 4th highest ranked winner vs 2nd highest ranked loser
• 2nd Semi Final: 3rd highest ranked winner vs 1st highest ranked loser

The two losing teams are eliminated, the two winning teams progress to Week 3.

Week 3

• 1st Preliminary Final: 1st highest ranked winner (from Week 1) vs winner of 1st Semi Final
• 2nd Preliminary Final: 2nd highest ranked winner (from Week 1) vs winner of 2nd Semi Final

The two losing teams are eliminated, the two winning teams progress to Week Four.

Week 4

• Grand Final: winner of 1st Preliminary Final vs winner of 2nd Preliminary Final

Scheduling

A key element of an effective McIntyre system is scheduling in week 1. In the first week games must be played in the following order: 4 vs 5, 3 vs 6, 2 vs 7, 1 vs 8. Teams in the first two games are playing for the chance of a bye in the second week of the finals. If the final two games ultimately go as predicted, then the chance of a bye or the risk of elimination disappears. Therefore, those games need to be played last so that there is never a situation where two teams know that their result would not matter.

1st: Advances with a win to preliminary final (week 3). Must play the semifinal with a loss. He can´t be eliminated in week 1 (He has 18,75% of winning the tournament).

2nd: Same as 1st, but he has a more difficult opponent in week 1 (7th instead 8th).

3rd: Advances to preliminary final with a win AND at least one upset in one of the two last qualifying finals (1st or 2nd loses his qualifying final). Must play the semifinal with a win and no upset in last two qualifying finals or a loss if there´s at least one hopeful result in two last qualifying finals. Is eliminated if he loses AND 1st and 2nd too. (He has a 15,625% of winning the tournament).

4th: Advances to preliminary final with a win AND there are, at least, two upsets in remaining qualifying finals. It must play the semifinal if there are, at least, two hopeful results in other qualifying finals, regardless his result. Is eliminated with a loss AND, at least, two upsets (He has a 12,5% of winning the tournament).

5th: Same as 4th (but play away his qualifying final against 4th).

6th: Advances to preliminary final with a win AND 7th and 8th win their qualifying finals. It must play the semi final with a win AND, if there is, at least, one hoperful result, OR, if he loses, if there are BOTH hopeful results in remaining qualifying finals. Is eliminated with a loss AND one upset, at least, in remaining qualifying finals. (He has a 9,375% of winning the tournament).

7th: It can´t advance straight to preliminary final. Advances to semifinal with a win and is eliminated with a loss (He has a 6,25% of winning the tournament).

8th: Same as 7th (but he has a more difficult opponent in week 1 -1st instead 2nd).

1st, 2nd, 7th and 8th depend on themselves. 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th depend on their results and other qualifying finals results

Example

The 2010 NRL Final Series:

	Qualifying Finals					Semi Finals					Preliminary Finals					Grand Final
	1	St George Illawarra	28
	8	Manly-Warringah	0
											1W	St George Illawarra	13
	2	Penrith Panthers	22			4W	Canberra Raiders	24				Wests Tigers	12
	7	Canberra Raiders	24			2L	Wests Tigers	26									St George Illawarra	32
																	Sydney Roosters	8
	3	Wests Tigers	15								2W	Gold Coast Titans	6
	6	Sydney Roosters	19			3W	Sydney Roosters	34				Sydney Roosters	32
						1L	Penrith Panthers	12
	4	Gold Coast Titans	28
	5	NZ Warriors	16

At the Qualifying Finals, team 1 won and so went straight through to the Preliminary Finals. Team 4 also went through to the Preliminary Finals, because they won while teams 2 and 3 lost. However, teams 2 and 3 were not eliminated, but played again in the Semi Finals, because two teams ranking lower than them on the ladder also lost. Those two losing teams ranking lower than them, teams 5 and 8, were eliminated.

Advantages

The major advantages of the system are the number of different combinations of teams which could make the final game and that no matches are repeated twice in the first three weeks. When compared to other final eight systems, many of which split the participants into two groups, the McIntyre system means only two combinations (1v7 and 2v8) are impossible in the Grand Final.

The top two teams after the regular season are rewarded by being given a 'second life' within the finals. If either of these two teams lose to their much lower ranked opponents in the first week, then one of the two losing teams ranked lower than them are eliminated, which means the 1st and 2nd ranked teams can withstand a loss in the finals and their season will continue, albeit with significant disadvantages.

This 'second life' advantage for the highest ranked teams on the ladder can flow on to teams 3 and 4 (and even further down the ladder, as far as team 6.) If only one of the top two on the ladder loses in the first week, then team 3 is not eliminated if it has lost. Similarly, if only one of the top three on the ladder loses in the first week, then team 4 is saved from elimination if it has lost.

If the top two teams win in the first week, then teams 7 and 8 will be the ones to be eliminated. Only two teams drop out, so even if they were to lose their games, teams 5 and 6 would still have another chance in the second week.

Criticisms

With its adoption by the NRL, debate has arisen over its fairness. The McIntyre system rewards teams who have form coming into the finals rather than during the whole season. The advantages given to a victor in the first week of the finals, even if that team is initially ranked 6th to 8th, includes a home final in the second week against a team ranked 3rd to 6th coming off a loss. This advantage given to lower ranked teams that win in the first week are significant compared to the alternate final 8 system used by the AFL, which protects teams coming 1st to 4th from elimination and never give home finals to teams ranked 7th or 8th, regardless of whether they win or lose their matches.

In 2008, the first week of the NRL finals saw the then reigning grand finalists the Melbourne Storm lose to the 8th placed New Zealand Warriors. Granted a home final as a week 1 winner, the Warriors then defeated the Sydney Roosters in the second week and proceeded to the final 4, the first team ever to make it that far from 8th position, whereas the Storm had to travel to Brisbane and win away to continue on. This scenario was exceeded in 2009 when the Parramatta Eels, who had finished 8th defeated St George Illawarra Dragons. Parramatta, with a home advantage, proceeded to defeat the Gold Coast Titans in week 2, whereas the Dragons were eliminated from the competition in week 2 in their away match against the Brisbane Broncos. This gave them the dubious distinction of being the first minor premiers to be eliminated after two consecutive losses since the inception of the McIntyre System. Parramatta became the first team ranked last of the finalists to contest the Grand Final, only to lose to the 4th-placed Melbourne Storm, although this Premiership has been struck from the record due to salary cap breaches by the Storm. For the record, at least one top four team has lost its qualifying final in every year since this system was introduced in 1999, until 2011 when all top four teams won their qualifying final.

Another criticism is that, like many other top-8 systems, there is the possibility of games in the first week that are effectively meaningless, where teams have no risk of elimination and results only determine respective opponents and home ground advantage in the second week. In the MacIntyre system if first-week results go as planned, then first defeats eighth and second defeats seventh. This leaves the teams who finished from third to sixth effectively playing "dead rubbers" in the first week, with the results merely reshuffling the order of these four teams.

This also makes scheduling much less flexible, since the first vs eighth game must be the last game played, in order to prevent the teams between third and sixth entering their qualifying finals knowing that the game is already a dead rubber.

Another anomaly of scheduling is that in the second week a team may play a higher ranked opponent than the team they defeated, and similarly a first week loser may play an easier opponent than the team that defeated them. In the second week of the McIntyre system the third highest winner (i.e. the strongest winner of those playing) plays the highest ranked loser rather than the second highest loser (i.e. the weakest loser). This may ensure no repetition of games in the second week, but it means higher ranked teams end up with more difficult opponents simply for the sake of more interesting scheduling. An example of this happened in 2005 when the Wests Tigers (4th) defeated the North Queensland Cowboys (5th) in week one of the finals and were 'rewarded' in week 2 with a game against the 3rd placed Brisbane Broncos. Meanwhile, the Cowboys played the Melbourne Storm who were ranked 6th.

In 2011, the 6th-placed New Zealand Warriors were beaten convincingly by the Brisbane Broncos (ranked 3rd) in its qualifying final by the scoreline of 40–10. Following that match, then-Warriors coach Ivan Cleary was quoted as saying "the way we played tonight, we don't deserve to be in the finals". That loss saw them at risk of being eliminated initially, but were granted a reprieve after the two lower ranking teams, North Queensland and Newcastle, also lost their finals. A sudden reverse in form would see them advance to the Grand Final, thus becoming the third team (after the St. George Illawarra Dragons in 1999 and the Sydney Roosters the season previous), to advance to the Grand Final after finishing sixth at the end of the season. Ultimately, the Warriors would lose to the second-placed Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles who had a much easier run to the decider.

Competitions

In addition to the NRL, the McIntyre Final Eight System is also used in the Rugby League National League Three in Great Britain, the NSWRL Premier League and Jersey Flegg competitions.

See also

• Top five play-offs
• Top six play-offs
• Early VFL Final systems
• McIntyre System
• Current Super League system, another final-8 system with a unique twist

References

1. ^ "Rugby League Tables - Notes". Rugby League Tables & Statistics. http://stats.rleague.com/rl/snotes.html. Retrieved 2007-01-22. 

External link

• NRL Final Eight Calculator, footy.com.au